If the recall does qualify, chances are that in heavily democratic California, which has become more inhospitable to Republicans in the years since the Democratic Gray Davis administration was recalled in 2003. And Grenell, due to his close ties to Trump, appears to have a restricted constituency in a state that Trump lost by nearly 30 percentage points in November.
Still, Newsom’s public approval score has fallen amid the coronavirus pandemic. And Grenell’s overtures reflect the Republicans’ intense interest at the national level to recall the Democratic governor of the country’s most populous state. The Republican National Committee is putting $ 250,000 into the effort.
Grenell said in an email that “it is not true” that he has begun interviewing campaigners and strategists and is preparing to announce a run if the recall is eligible. A source close to him said “it could still go both ways.”
Grenell’s entry into the race could immediately reorganize the Republican field in the recall campaign, removing conservative support from other candidates and breaking Newsom’s opponents along MAGA lines. And it could help Newsom define the campaign against him as a product of Trump allies.
“It would just be a disaster,” said Rob Stutzman, a California Republican political strategist who is critical of Trump. “That’s a huge gift for Newsom to frame the recall as Trumpists versus him.”
A Grenell candidacy, he said, “increases the likelihood that the recall will just become a dead letter.”
However, it’s possible Grenell could sink base Republicans into the state. More than 100 candidates ran to replace Davis in 2003. If the recall is eligible, the field of entry this year could match or exceed that. And with such a large field, a candidate who can organize even a relatively small portion of the electorate could be successful.
Although the California general electorate strongly disapproves of Trump, he has remained popular among Republicans, gaining more than six million votes in California. Trump’s approval played a decisive role in overwhelming Republican John Cox in the 2018 general election, where he lost outright to Newsom.
Grenell’s bona fide with the GOP base may surpass that of Cox. Former San Diego City Councilor Carl DeMaio, who speaks regularly with Grenell and hosts a radio show with a significantly conservative audience, said “the rules light up” when Grenell is involved. DeMaio, a critic of former GOP San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer – who has already announced his candidacy – said Grenell would “let the base appear” in California and argued that Grenell’s bluntness could appeal to some independents. And in addition to boosting turnout, DeMaio said, Grenell could have a larger fundraising network.
“You have a potential candidate here who, if he runs, would have more name IDs than the other names under consideration,” DeMaio said, predicting that Grenell could quickly raise significant sums by using Trump’s donor list. “He could really compete with the California Democrats ATM.”
Faulconer’s campaign declined to comment on Grenell on Friday. Cox, who is also active, said in a prepared statement, “I love Rick and his international service to the nation speaks for itself. Regardless of who takes part, my effort is focused on the solutions the Californians so badly wanted, forgotten by the political establishment like Gavin Newsom and Kevin Faulconer. “
Dan Newman, Newsom’s chief political adviser, said in a text message: “No surprise – Grenell, [conservative commentator Mike] Cernovich, Trump, Faulconer, Cox … it’s a Republican recall to its rotten partisan core. “
Grenell, who has publicly pranked Newsom, has been encouraged to lead by major Trump donors.
In late January, Grenell wrote an op-ed on Fox News discussing Newsom’s management of the coronavirus pandemic, saying that “he cannot be recalled soon enough.” And when the White House weighed in on the recall this week, Biden, Grenell wrote on Twitter, “The White House is now panicking over the @ recallgavin2020 campaign. Meanwhile, schools are closed, gyms closed, churches closed, restaurants outdoors only, vaccine distribution horrible, homelessness out of control, rolling blackouts – Gavin’s incompetence will be on the ball. “
A celebrity among Donald Trump’s loyalists, Grenell is a staunch defender of Trump’s nationalist policies and a reliably controversial Twitter presence, with biting criticism of reporters and Democrats. As a former advisor to UN Ambassador John Bolton, Grenell also worked for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign. Fox News reported in August that he had joined the Republican National Committee as a senior advisor focused on LGBTQ outreach.
The organizers of the recall appear close to amassing the 1.5 million valid signatures they need to qualify for the mid-March vote. If they succeed, the recall could go to voters later this year.