Globally, more COVID-19 cases are now being recorded every day than ever before in the pandemic, surpassing the previous global peak in early January.
The big picture: At the time, the US and Europe were the driving force behind the rise. This time, India is the biggest source of new cases.
Driving the news: In cities like New Delhi, which imposed another week-long lockdown today, hospitals are overwhelmed, supplies such as oxygen are scarce and morgues are overcrowded.
- India is now registering more than twice as many cases every day as during the first wave in the fall, and in some cities the number of new infections per AP has increased by as much as 16x in one month.
India’s peak has already had major global repercussions as vaccines allegedly exported by the world’s largest producer, the Serum Institute of India, have been preserved for domestic use.
- The institute’s CEO is now calling on President Biden to overturn a ban on exports of raw materials for vaccine production, which he says is contributing to shortages.
- India has now dosed about 8% of its population but is unlikely to be able to grow fast enough to vaccinate itself out of the current crisis.
Meanwhile Chile – which has the highest vaccination coverage in America with 41% receiving at least one dose – is also experiencing a rise in the number of cases.
- Experts say political leaders and the public – both desperate to return to normalcy – have overestimated the level of protection afforded by one dose of the Chinese Sinovac vaccine, which turns out to be minimal, per WSJ.
- However, with two doses, the data shows that the vaccine is 67% effective in preventing infection and 80% effective in preventing death.
- That suggests that Chile should be able to achieve herd immunity if it can sustain its vaccination rate, but that will take longer than hoped. In the meantime, the current wave should be less deadly as many elderly people are protected.
The downside: The vaccine effect is already evident in Israel, where new cases have fallen from an average of 3,954 a day six weeks ago to 167 a day now.
- The UK is emerging from the lockdown with more confidence, as more than half of the population and 90% of those over 70 have had at least one chance. The number of deaths has fallen to about 25 per day, from over 1,000 as recently as early February.
- Other European countries are trying to balance efforts to control the spread with the hope that rapidly rising vaccination coverage, combined with warmer weather, should bring the outbreaks under control.
- Switzerland is relaxing restrictions, even as the number of cases remains relatively high, and Greece is bringing back quarantine-free travel to boost the tourism industry, ahead of what it hopes will be a major revival this summer.
Much of the world however, cases are increasing faster than vaccination coverage.
- Iran, for example, is registering more cases than ever and more deaths than ever since November. Both numbers are increasing dramatically. Only 0.4% of the population has now been vaccinated.
Go deeper: Where the vaccines come from and where they go.