Germany’s Greens want to shake up the country’s politics, here’s how

In the space of a few years, the German Green Party has grown from a bit on the fringes of the political establishment to popularity and notoriety.

Now it is in a position where it could catch up with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Alliance, Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU).

If it extends and holds that position, the party could be in charge of Germany’s political, economic and, of course, environmental direction after the September 26 elections.

Recent voter polls have placed the party in second place after the CDU-CSU. But a Forsa Institute poll of 1,502 people, conducted on Tuesday, put the Greens in the lead with 28% of the vote – 5 percentage points more than a comparable poll conducted April 6-12. Support for the CDU-CSU had dropped 6 points to 21%, the same poll found.

Poll aggregator Europe Elects noted on Twitter that if such a result were to be repeated in the election, it would be the first time since 2005 that Merkel’s conservative alliance does not come first.

While the Greens certainly seem to be seeing a surging wave of popularity, it should be noted that a separate INSA poll for the Bild newspaper on Tuesday put the CDU-CSU at 27% of the vote and the Greens at 22% of the vote, with similar results. in other April polls.

In the last elections in 2017, the Greens got only 8.9% of the vote, while Merkel’s CDU-CSU together got 33%.

The Forsa poll will no doubt give the Green Party a huge boost, adding to solid momentum in recent months and the selection earlier this week of 40-year-old Annalena Baerbock, the party’s co-leader, as the candidate of the Greens for chancellor. Party officials are increasingly confident in their chances in the elections.

“Anything is possible,” Konstantin von Notz, a member of the Bundestag and Green Party, told CNBC on Tuesday, echoing one of the party’s slogans.

“There should be no doubt about it, it will be a very tough election campaign. It will be a great controversy and people from all parties will be very hard on us because the Greens say we could be the leading party and that makes it. .. wake up every enemy. “

The Greens are attracting voters dissatisfied with the old guard of German political parties. Recent scandals and political disagreements within the CDU-CSU – most recently over who will be the alliance’s candidate for Chancellor in the vote on Sept. 26 – have also seen the Greens appear united, focused and appealing to a liberal, middle class and environmentally conscious voters.

Von Notz said the party had seen more voters move to the party in recent years and that many Germans are “tired” of the old political establishment.

“Five months before the elections is a long road, with a lot of conflict, no doubt about that, but I strongly believe that we have a very good story and strong political ideas about the future for Germany, the future for Europe and those problems with the economic crisis and the climate change problems facing the entire world, ”he said.

As expected, environmental protection is the Greens’ central pledge. But the party also wants to restructure the country’s economic model into a socio-ecological system, which means putting more emphasis on green technologies, abandoning coal energy by 2030 and banning combustion-engined cars from German roads by 2030.

To help fund its program, the party has called for the so-called debt brake to be relaxed, which would allow Germany to raise more money in public markets, and has also called for higher taxes on the wealthy. Money raised from such a wealth tax could finance a € 50 billion ($ 60 billion) investment program for ten years that the party proposes to transition to a carbon-free economy.

According to Christian Schulz, director of European economics at Citi Research, the strategists believe that a coalition between the CDU-CSU and the Greens is a baseline scenario and one being prepared by the conservative bloc. could go in.

“We would expect an ambitious climate protection policy, supported by large government investment. We doubt the CDU / CSU would sanction tax increases, so additional loans would likely require an adjustment to the constitutional debt burden. The SPD and the Left Party would not oppose this. and securing the necessary two-thirds majority, ”said Schulz.

German business groups, however, are less convinced of the Greens’ policies, as the FDI commented in March on the Green Party’s draft election program “dim light and much shadow”.

In a statement, Joachim Lang, FDI’s general manager, warned that “higher taxes and more bureaucracy would cost the economy and society dearly,” although he said the party’s calls for a decade of future investment “should be welcomed.” . “

“Higher taxes reduce investment power and hamper future climate protection spending. Demands for higher carbon prices without adequate alternatives weaken Germany’s competitiveness,” he said.

“A wealth tax drastically reduces investment opportunities. It affects not only businesses, but all citizens. From an industry point of view, the sector is calling for a decade of future investment to overcome the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and strengthen Germany as a business location are positive. “

– CNBC’s Annette Weisbach contributed to the reporting of this story.