Since I complained about it repeatedly in 2020, I have to emphasize that the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have started late and half-heartedly to publish realistic estimates of the magnitude of Covid-19 in the US.
It is difficult to describe what is deliberate as a mistake, but at least the current addendum reminds us that every fourth wave will be focused on people who are not among the 100 million or so who are already infected and therefore some. have acquired immunity. as the potentially overlapping 100 million inoculated.
Which means that the fourth wave will be largely limited to unvaccinated young people who have been diligently locked up for the duration and are now mixing and exposing themselves to risks in a way that they didn’t a few months ago.
In a similar vein, results from California, Florida, Germany, Sweden, and elsewhere have a simple correlation between mandatory lockdowns and a successful practice of social distancing. One conclusion is overwhelming: Like Florida, whose peak load occurred long after New York or northern Italy, certain places took advantage of the time to reflect and reflect and take more nuanced approaches to Covid’s arrival.
We may discover that lockdown measures have come too late, are not being enforced, or are simply irrelevant in addition to the choices people make about when and how to expose themselves to risk.