Four serious cases of COVID, no deaths

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A year ago, we wondered if an effective coronavirus vaccine could ever be developed for humans. Six months ago, we wondered if any of the vaccines in the pipeline would actually work or if 50 percent efficacy was the best we could hope for.

Looking at these numbers, I wonder today if the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines are the most important medical breakthrough since the polio vaccine.

Keep in mind that the proportion of the population in Israel that is fully vaccinated is aging heavily. According to the latest data, 80 percent of Israelis 60 or older have gotten both photos, while only 20 percent of the 16-59 demographic has. The vaccine has eliminated COVID deaths and almost completely eliminated severe cases of COVID among the demographic * most susceptible * to those outcomes.

Rescue:

An Israeli health care provider who vaccinated half a million people with both doses of the Pfizer vaccine says only 544 people – or 0.1% – were later diagnosed with the coronavirus, there have been four serious cases and no people have died .

That means the effectiveness rate is 93 percent, Maccabi Healthcare Services announced Thursday, after comparing the immunized members to a “diverse” control group of unvaccinated members …

Of the 523,000 fully vaccinated people, 544 were infected with COVID-19, of whom 15 had to be hospitalized: eight are in mild condition, three in moderate condition, and four in severe condition.

So if you’ve had both shots, you’ve got about a one in 1,000 chance of getting infected, a one in 35,000 chance of being sent to the hospital, and a one in 130,000 chance of a truly troubling case. And again, that’s a sample that includes a huge percentage of older, previously vulnerable people. The vaccine has lifted the cloud of COVID above the heads of Israeli seniors.

So much so that Israeli hospitals now have more new patients under 60 admitted for the disease than over 60:

An immunized elder in Israel has a stronger immune response to the coronavirus than a non-immunized person under 60, it seems. The image to the right here also shows the curve of hospital admissions by age that begins to shift as vaccinations increase:

The obvious wrinkle is that this data only tells us how effective the mRNA vaccines are. The vaccines still in the pipeline, such as those from Johnson & Johnson and Novavax, use different agents to elicit an immune response and have not reached 95 percent efficacy levels in clinical trials, as Pfizer and Moderna have done. However, Biden’s pandemic advisers published an opinion piece yesterday warning people not to dwell on the efficacy rates. It would be great if every vaccine was as effective as Pfizer’s in preventing infection, but when it comes down to it, nobody cares about infection. We care about serious cases and deaths. A vaccine that won’t stop you from getting sick, but * does * prevent you from having symptoms worse than a cough and low fever for a few days would be a big triumph with a death toll as high as 500,000. And the good news, Biden’s advisers say, is that every major vaccine tested to date – all of them – has been 100 percent effective at preventing bad results in trials.

All seven COVID-19 vaccines that have completed major efficacy studies – Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, AstraZeneca, Sputnik V and Sinovac – appear to be 100% effective in severe complications. No vaccinated person has become so ill that they have to be hospitalized. No vaccinated person has died from COVID-19.

Not all infections are created equal. People who have been vaccinated against viruses do get infected from time to time. But thanks to an immune system with vaccination, the infections never develop and become seriously ill. Vaccine efficacy varies only with respect to mild forms of COVID-19 disease. When it comes to the measures that really matter – hospital admissions and death – they are all functionally the same.

The reason this opinion piece was published was to encourage Americans not to stick with an mRNA vaccine if one isn’t available locally once you qualify for vaccination. People who follow the news on COVID now know that Pfizer and Moderna are very effective at preventing infection, while Johnson & Johnson’s product, at least according to the research data, is slightly less. For that reason, some will be tempted to pass on J&J to wait until the mRNA products are back in stock. But that’s a bad idea, like choosing to go into battle without a bulletproof vest, because the vest you prefer is currently sold out. When push comes to shove, any vest that stops the bullet is fineAnd in the case of COVID, from what scientists have been able to glean so far, any “vest” that is either on the market or soon to be will do that job.

By the way, while Israel’s vaccination effort continues, they’ve started to slack off lately:

To some extent, that drop-off is a simple matter of fewer unvaccinated people walking around right now. But it also suggests that Israel has bumped into the outer limits of the vaccine-skeptical segment of the population. It’s easy to get people immunized quickly in the beginning if you have an efficient delivery system, as anyone who is enthusiastic will queue up with no encouragement needed. But they are now through that group. It’s time to start working on the fences to continue to strive for herd immunity.

In lieu of an exit question, read this story about the FDA giving Moderna the green light to include 14 doses of its vaccine in its vials instead of 10, a boost that will rapidly increase supply by 20 percent. That is the good news. The bad news is that more doses in each vial means more risk of dose wastage if the entire supply has not been used six hours after opening. Good luck to the next Dr. Gokal who is eventually fired and prosecuted for trying to do the right thing in that situation.

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