Analysis by Morgan Stanley shows that Tesla’s share of the US EV market fell to 69% in February, from 81% a year ago.
According to this analysis, Tesla sales in the US are still increasing due to the increased interest of US car buyers in electric vehicles. Morgan Stanley estimates that electric vehicle sales across the US were up 34% in February compared to a year earlier, even as sales of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles were down 5.4% according to the analysis.
TeslaTSLA only reports worldwide quarterly sales, not monthly or US sales like many other automakers. According to Morgan Stanley’s analysis, Tesla was likely to see sales up 5.4% in the US in February.
Traditional automakers’ new electric offerings more than doubled their combined US EV sales to 9,527 vehicles. And Ford’s Mach-E, which won this year’s SUV of the Year award and began deliveries in late January, posted 3,739 sales in February, according to figures from Ford. FordF.
“Mach-E accounted for almost 100% of the [Tesla] share loss, ”said Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley auto analyst, in a note earlier this week.
Other experts said they also think Tesla is losing some of its share of the EV market.
“We’ve been expecting this for a while,” said Michelle Krebs, senior analyst at AutoTrader. “Tesla was the only game in town. Not now. We expect Tesla’s sales to increase as the market increases, but Tesla’s market share will also be stolen.”
A Ford spokesman does not want to respond directly to Morgan Stanley’s analysis. The company did say that 70% of Mach-E buyers were new to Ford, making the car much more valuable to the automaker. More than 20% of Mach-E sales came in California, where Tesla is particularly popular.
Tesla faces competition from automakers such as Porsche, BMW, Audi and Jaguar for its luxury Model S sedan and Model X SUV, along with competition from Chevrolet, Hyundai, Kia, Volkswagen, Nissan and now Ford for its cheaper Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV.
But the Model 3 and Model Y are now the mainstays of Tesla’s sales, accounting for about 90% of global fourth-quarter sales.
Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on the Morgan Stanley analysis.
Tesla has already fallen behind VolkswagenVLKAF, the world’s No. 2 car manufacturer, in sales of electric vehicles in many European markets, including Norway, where electric vehicles now make up the majority of new vehicle sales.
And it is facing new competition from it General enginesGM, which just launched a compact SUV version of its American electric car, the Chevrolet Bolt. The Bolt EUV will go on sale in early summer, along with a new version of the current Bolt hatchback. Both will be priced under the Model 3 and Model Y.
And this is just the beginning of a wave of new electric vehicles promised by traditional car manufacturers in the coming years. Volvo announced this week that it will only offer electric cars by 2030, while Ford said it will only sell electric passenger cars in Europe by 2030. GM said it expects to sell only zero-emission cars by 2035.
The aggressive targets for electric vehicles are driven by both stricter environmental regulations around the world and the growing demand for electric vehicles among buyers.
And while electric vehicles are now more expensive to build than comparable gasoline engines, economies of scale are likely to lower the cost of parts, including the large batteries, thusit is cheaper and therefore more profitable to build electric vehicles. Electric vehicles have fewer moving parts and, according to a Ford estimate, require 30% fewer hours to assemble than traditional cars.
