By Tal Axelrod
New York City is rushing towards its high stakes mayoral race as a host of Democrats and some Republicans jockey ahead of the June 22 primaries.
The eventual winner of the mayoral race will take over a city in crisis struggling with high levels of coronavirus infections, the economic impact of the pandemic, the explosive growth of crime and other problems.
The race has already produced a slew of candidates with a range of experiences looking to replace the mayor Bill de Blasio
Bill de BlasioCuomo Faces Growing Control Over COVID-19 Nursing Home Deaths New York State Warns Hospitals To Vaccinate Staff For The Elderly: Report States Failing On Technology And Privacy – Biden Must Lead MORE (D), whose pandemic surveillance has been widely filtered. He may not run for a third consecutive term.
Among the Democratic candidates running for a spot in the November 2 general election are former presidential candidates Andrew Yang
Andrew YangYang Meets Donation Requirements to Get City Money in NYC Mayor’s Race Poll Finds Yang Far Ahead in NYC Mayor’s Race The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Facebook – Democrats Mapping Path to Meet Biden’s COVID-19 Emergency Plan LAKE, Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, City Comptroller Scott Stringer and former counsel for the Blasio Maya Wiley.
Here are five things to watch out for as the race unfolds.
How is the coronavirus
affect the race?
The mayoral race looks unlike any other New York City in recent memory. Retail politics have long been a staple of campaigns in the city’s five boroughs, often seeing candidates happily with voters outside of stores, on street corners and at local events to garner brand awareness and support.
However, that has been sharply curtailed during the coronavirus pandemic, a change underscored when Yang announced earlier this month that he was testing positive for the virus and would cease his personal activities.
“They cannot do what they have always done,” said longtime Democratic adviser Hank Sheinkopf.
“New York is a place where people campaign, enter the subways, stand off bus lines, restaurants. It is an outdoor environment where people are much more involved with candidates in a very personal way. And part of the decision-making necessary to decide who is the mayor is to see who is in the most physical pain by getting up early in the morning, going in at night at the latest, and seeing more stops. to become. ”
The coronavirus could also affect voter turnout given the severity of the pandemic in the area.
Local elections in the city have traditionally been plagued by low voter participation, with turnout sometimes as low as 20 percent.
But observers suggest that the severity of the pandemic, in addition to an extended early voting period, could affect that political calculus.
“The hardest part is getting someone who doesn’t normally run local primaries to worry or think their vote is important, so I think that’s the biggest factor. Will COVID be serious enough to get a much wider pool of New Yorkers to the polls? asked Kathryn Wylde, who is leading the partnership for New York City.
How big is the change people are looking for at the Blasio?
De Blasio’s management of the city has broadly shifted in recent years, and that criticism has only increased during the coronavirus pandemic.
His approval score is less than 50 percent, according to an October poll. In fact, one Democrat active in 2020 used de Blasio as a foil, going so far as to call him the “ worst mayor in New York City history. ”
“According to public opinion data, it would be difficult for Bill de Blasio to bring in even a significant portion of the city’s electorate if he took part again,” said Sheinkopf.
Wylde said voters are primarily looking for a candidate who can propose the kind of clear plan to tackle the pandemic de Blasio has been trying to articulate.
“Political statements just don’t solve problems, and I think people have seen that in this very serious situation where we have a different solution every day depending on the political wind of the moment,” she said.
Can Yang keep his early status as a leader?
Yang, who gained national prominence during his surprisingly strong presidential campaign, is an early frontrunner in the Democratic primaries, with a poll earlier this month showing him a big lead over his competitors.
He is by far the best-known candidate in the race, with 84 percent of respondents saying they’ve heard of him. Stringer is the second best known candidate, with 66 percent brand awareness.
Now comes the hard part for Yang: maintaining that frontrunner status.
While the entrepreneur has an extensive social media presence and a very loyal following, he comes out of the gate with early gaffes. Among other things, he sought answers as to why he lived in his suburban home during the pandemic and why he didn’t vote in the 2000 and 2012 presidential elections or every New York City mayoral election between 2001 and 2017.
Those missteps aside, Yang also lacks administrative experience at a time when voters may be looking for a steady hand to lead them out of the pandemic.
“I think it will be very difficult for those who do not have a track record in public service and have no deep knowledge of the city to convince voters that they are the manager the city needs. So I think there is a built-in benefit to those who have been in government, who know people pre-pandemic and know in their community environment, not just because of a zoom look, ”said Wylde.
It is also likely that voters’ awareness of other candidates will increase as more campaign ads go up.
“The benefit of Andrew Yang’s name recognition disappears overnight when the air war begins,” said Eric Phillips, a former Blasio spokesman. “Can he continue to lead a race if voters get to know the other candidates? I am skeptical. ”
What role do votes in order of choice play in the primary?
New York City is making use of ranked votes in its mayoral primaries for the first time this year. That means that if no candidate gets 50 percent or more of the votes in the first round, the following choices are considered until one of the candidates has a majority of the votes.
That could lead to fewer negative attacks for fear of alienating another candidate’s supporters and even unusual alliances.
“People will make deals to find out how they support each other to get first and second,” said Sheinkopf.
Candidates who are more established in urban politics can benefit from the new system.
“I think the ranking of votes suggests that the candidates best known for their background in basic politics in New York City will benefit from a situation where people can say, ‘Well this candidate, I saw their ad and they really appealed to so I’m going to put them in the first place but I think it’s a safe bet to vote for another candidate who has a long track record in public service and who I know has never has done something outrageous, being a decent person, whatever, ” said Wylde.
Does a Republican have a chance in the general election?
The short answer is: hardly or not at all.
There are more than registered Republicans in the city by a margin of nearly 7 to 1, and the blue hue deepened during the Trump administration. Outside of Staten Island, Republican victories in the city have become increasingly scarce.
Wylde said a Republican would have no chance “unless there is some earth-shaking event.” When asked for clarification, she said that only an event of the same magnitude as the 9/11 terrorist attacks could shake up the race enough to really give a Republican a chance.
Sheinkopf put it more bluntly: “A Republican who runs should save his money and buy a house.”