- The first study of the coronavirus mutation in the UK that is currently rapidly spreading warns that more stringent security measures may be needed to prevent another massive outbreak.
- Computer models indicated that the virus may be 56% more contagious than other strains. However, the new mutation does not cause a more serious disease.
- Researchers warn that schools may need to be closed to buy Britain more time. They also say vaccination campaigns need to be speeded up to reduce the spread of the virus.
When the British Prime Minister announced last weekend that the recently discovered coronavirus mutation could be 70% more contagious than other species, some experts questioned the estimate, saying more data is needed to determine the species’ potential danger. Many European countries have banned the UK from travel to reduce the risk of the B.1.1.7 tribe traveling to the rest of the EU region. The mutation contains a collection of 17 genetic changes, a first for notable mutations in the coronavirus. While it may not cause more serious cases of COVID-19, these mutations can make it more contagious. Some health experts even warned that the changes could make existing vaccines less effective, although many others said no such concerns exist. The consensus was that more research was needed to determine the way forward. The new strain must be tested in laboratories to determine how contagious it really is and whether it can evade neutralizing antibodies generated after vaccines.
The first study of the new coronavirus strain is now here, telling the world that the threat could be serious. Stronger measures, including the closure of schools and universities, and accelerated vaccination campaigns, may be needed to prevent the B.1.1.7 epidemic from escalating.
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The study comes from the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and was published online in preprinted form. The scientists found that the British mutation is 56% more contagious than the other versions circulating in the country, and additional measures are needed to control it. The 56% estimate is still rough as the researchers gather more data. The study found no evidence that the virus was more deadly than other strains, which is good news anyway.
“It may be necessary to significantly accelerate vaccine rollout,” said Nicholas Davies, lead author of the study The New York Times. “The preliminary findings are quite convincing that faster vaccination will be very important for any country dealing with these or similar variants.”
The scientists did not study the virus’s behavior in lab tests, but used computer models to predict the severity of the pathogen. Their tests have ruled out the possibility that the B.1.1.7 strain has become widespread in some regions of the UK, as people in those places move more than others and are likely to interact with more people. The scientists also modeled what could happen in the next six months and built models with different levels of restriction. “Cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths in 2021 could exceed those in 2020,” without a substantial vaccination campaign. The UK has registered nearly 2.2 million cases so far this year, including nearly 70,000 deaths.
Researchers said closing schools until February could save the country some time. Removing the restrictions would lead to a major spike in cases.
A vaccination model vaccinating 200,000 people every week showed that the rate would be too slow to affect the spread of the mutated virus. “That kind of pace wouldn’t really be able to support much of the relaxation of control measures,” Davies said. If weekly vaccinations reach 2 million, COVID-19 transmission may decrease. But the vaccine stock is still low and it will take some time for vaccination campaigns to get underway. Even if the supply is adequate, it is unclear whether the country can ramp up vaccinations to 2 million a week.
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Like any other COVID-19 study, this study could benefit from additional data, and it may have limitations that affected the models. A few experts who have analyzed the research on The times pointed out some potential issues, including the assumption that people under age 20 had a 50% chance of spreading the disease. But even those researchers made it clear that the mutation must be taken seriously or it could lead to another serious outbreak.
The full study is available at this link.
Chris Smith started writing about gadgets as a hobby and before he knew it, he shared his thoughts on tech matters with readers around the world. If he doesn’t write about gadgets, he sadly fails to stay away from them, although he desperately tries. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing.