If there was something wrong with the pencil in the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Baylor Bears for the national championship of your 2021 March Madness series back on Selection Sunday, it’s only because the NCAA tournament has traditionally given us so many surprises. (Saturday night’s near-mistake for UCLA was another reminder.) It couldn’t have been because someone questioned the capabilities of the Zags or Bears, the nation’s top two teams in November (and maybe even November 2019) that are finally get to know the National Championship on Monday night from the Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Perhaps that canceled meeting between the two teams on December 5 was a blessing in disguise – we’ll see Mark Few’s team and Scott Drew’s team come together for all the marbles.
Ahead of Monday night’s game, ESPN.com’s college basketball team of Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello, John Gasaway and Joe Lunardi came together to explore the historical implications of Gonzaga vs. Saturday night’s Final Four and the player games we’re most looking forward to on Championship Monday in Indy. Follow this link for Monday’s National Championship tip time, and visit here to check out your March Madness bracket or Second Chance March Madness bracket.
It’s Gonzaga vs. Baylor for the national championship, the rare occasion that the country’s undisputed best two teams reach the final stages of college basketball. What are the historical implications of 1 vs 2 – are you ready to judge where this matchup stands in history, or at least recent history?
Medcalf: This feels somewhat unique as we’re looking at a game that could have been played last year had the NCAA tournament not been canceled. As of November 8, 2019, Baylor has lost only five games. Gonzaga lost two on that stretch. On paper, I think it rivals the 2017 UNC-Gonzaga matchup based on where they stand in the game’s current hierarchy.
After Kansas beat Ohio State in the Final Four in 2012, I think we all agreed that the Jayhawks deserved their shot at Kentucky. But we just haven’t had much of a two-year build up to a championship game in this era. Corey Kispert and Joel Ayayi were strong players at Gonzaga a year ago and Drew Timme closed the 2019/20 season with a series of impressive forays. Jared Butler and MaCio Teague returned this season to pursue a title. A two-team-led tournament, anchored by key players from last season’s top teams, only bolsters the build-up for Monday’s game. It’s rare in the one-and-done era. These aren’t just the two best teams of this season. They are the two most dominant programs of the past two years.
Borzello: I think the matchup I’m listening to would be the 2005 national championship game between Illinois and North Carolina. Illinois started the season with 29 consecutive wins, then went on to win the Big Ten tournament before moving to the national championship, while North Carolina took four losses before the tournament, but there Illinois was ahead of the rest of the country in the statistics. The difference between those two teams and Gonzaga and Baylor is that we knew they would both be elite for the season, they lived up to expectations during the regular season and then steamed their way into the title game. So I think this matchup ranks a little higher than that game from 2005.
Gonzaga is a generically good team for me, and if we take away the post-COVID break battle, Baylor isn’t that far behind. Baylor has been 53-6 for the past two seasons, Gonzaga 62-2 – and I think there is a chance we would have met two undefeated teams against each other in the title game had it not been for the break. This should be the best paper matchup in recent memory.
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Baylor’s Davion Mitchell picks a 3 pointer to end the first half that sets him and his teammates on fire.
Gas away: We don’t often get a clear distinction between the top two and every other team in the country and of course, when we entered the 2021 tournament, the AP poll said the “top two” meant Gonzaga and Illinois. But the tournament itself determines who the best teams really are, and the Bulldogs and Baylor are clearly the Division I class. In terms of precedents from this century or directly bordering on it, North Carolina vs. Gonzaga in 2017, as well as Duke vs. Wisconsin in 2015, Kansas vs. Memphis in 2008, Florida vs. Ohio State in 2007, North Carolina vs. Illinois in 2005 and UConn vs. Duke in 1999. Those title games all contained two No. 1 seeds, and with just one or two minor exceptions, they were all close to the final minutes. Put on your seat belt, this should be great.
Lunardi: With all due respect, the NCAA tournament rarely determines the best team in any given season. It certainly gives us a worthy champion, but the idea of ”best” is more elusive. Until now. Gonzaga and Baylor have been on a collision course since the non-game in December and will now decide both a worthy champion and the best team. The only thing better is the best of the seven.
The road ended for the Houston and UCLA teams who made impressive runs in this tournament. Who do you think has the better chance of returning to the Final Four, the Cougars or Bruins sooner?
Borzello: UCLA – and I think the Bruins will be picked as a Final Four contender when we start thinking about the early 2021-22 rankings. Mick Cronin could bring back every player on this year’s team, assuming Chris Smith decides to come back after ripping his ACL mid-season and Johnny Juzang not competing in the NBA draft. The Bruins are also bringing in five-star prospectus Peyton Watson, which should impress immediately and provide insurance in case one of the two aforementioned players decides to leave – or surprisingly knock out someone else.
Houston could step back with DeJon Jarreau’s expected departure and a few pieces of frontcourt, while Quentin Grimes could also head to the NBA. With Kelvin Sampson at the helm and the way the Cougars defend, they should be ranked in the preseason top 25, but a new Final Four looks like a stretch.
Gasaway: Famous last words here, but the Bruins seem to be hitting the sweet spot “will be highly rated next season”. Mick Cronin has a Final Four team with zero seniors and also zero players who are currently in the top 100 of ESPN’s NBA draft rankings. At Houston, Jarreau is a senior and was both the Cougars’ first defender on the ball and by far the best distributor. Jarreau will be difficult to replace.
Lunardi: It’s easy to see UCLA next season as a top 10 preseason team, with Houston closer to “others getting votes”. Of course, UCLA has already proven that rankings and seeding mean next to nothing when it comes to progress in March (or even April). I have no idea who will be next to reach a Final Four, but it’s fair to say that the UCLA program is generally in a better position than Houston to book a recurring assignment.
Medcalf: I think UCLA, especially if Juzang returns and Smith returns from his seasonal knee injury. The Bruins can take the momentum out of this run and build on it. I think it also improves the recruitment landscape for Mick Cronin’s program. “You can win a national title at UCLA” hasn’t really been a thing in basketball for over a decade. Now it is real. This is an incredible performance in the second season for any coach.
But the UCLA brand is powerful in good times, and its supporters have been waiting for another chance to back a national title contender. But I also think Kelvin Sampson can make Houston a hub for a number of transfers in the portal. Jarreau and Grimes have just led Houston to its first national semifinal in 37 years. I think both teams will be competitive in the coming years.
We’ll keep the score predictions for Monday, but what is the one-on-one player match you’re most looking forward to in the national championship?
Borzello: Jalen Suggs to Davion Mitchell. A top-five NBA draft prospect, Suggs has proven himself to be a truly special player, while Mitchell has increased his stash just as much as anyone in the NCAA tournament. Mitchell tends to guard the opponent’s best defender, and Suggs passes just right. He has made life difficult for all types of perimeter players over the season, most recently Moses Moody and Quentin Grimes. Suggs, however, has a higher level of speed and explosiveness and will present Mitchell with a completely different problem. On the other hand, Suggs’s physicality can sometimes overwhelm opponents, and he’ll likely enjoy the chance to slow down Mitchell – assuming he’s not guarding Jared Butler.
Gasaway: Give me Mitchell vs. Suggs over and over again. I wish this was a series of seven games. Both players are projected by ESPN.com as lottery picks for 2021, and both give their already great teams a whole new dimension. However, the funny thing about my perfect little hypothetical match is that sometimes wishes don’t come true. Mitchell is unlikely to be exclusively guarding Suggs, and in fact, I will be very interested to see Scott Drew deploy his defensive talent. For example, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Mitchell spends some quality time with Andrew Nembhard. The transfer from Florida leads his team within minutes of the tournament, often has the ball in his hands on the half court and is hailed by Mark Few as one of the best players he has ever had on the pick and roll.
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After UCLA’s Cody Riley gets blocked on the edge, Drew Timme throws down the two-handed jam on the other side.
Lunardi: Definitely Mitchell on Suggs. Can’t you see the veteran chasing the freshmen in the last possession of a tie? It’s not quite Bird and Magic, but we’ll be seeing both on an NBA stage for a long time to come.
Medcalf: My colleagues are right. But I think Mark Vital and the Baylor defenders against Drew Timme could decide the game. All season long, we’ve heard the same question about Baylor: Do the bears have enough size and skill inside to defeat a team built like Gonzaga? Vital is a major player for Scott Drew. He is 1.85 meters tall with a lot of Chuck Hayes in his game. It’s so physically strong that bigger players never push it around. If Timme is dominant and Drew has to find a way to send more help, it will create more room for the rest of Gonzaga’s playmakers. It could also mean bringing Matthew Mayer into the game earlier. Flo Thamba and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua will also be critical in this game. But if Vital & Co. can hold its own against the best postal player in America, that will change the game. Timme sees a few defenders on Monday. It may not be the sexiest match-up in the game, but it may be the most important.