In all-important week 15 of fantasy football season, some managers were over the moon as they progressed to their league championships, while some were left with crushing defeats and now have to reset and figure out what went wrong as the low season has now begun. . The difference between these managers? It fell to the importance of plus matchups versus poor. Some of these matchups were easy to spot, such as Jalen Hurts, JD McKissic, and Corey Davis. They were all considered capable starters for the week and came through during crunch time for managers pulling the trigger to start them. But then you have those hard-to-name names that have been left in the lineups out of habit and were albatrosses by week 15 (Russell Wilson, Miles Sanders, DK Metcalf), leaving managers with no more title games. It goes to show how difficult this fantasy game can sometimes be to manage. We all tend to look at the big names and not once argue about removing them from setups. When in fact recency in production and matchups should weigh heavily on the mind at this crucial time.
That’s what should be kept in mind for the managers still alive in the Week 16 Championship pursuit. Throw out everything you know, sit down and watch the games go into this week’s games. The defense of the last four to five games in terms of what they allow is sometimes not the same across the spectrum of their year-to-date numbers. Look at teams such as the Seahawks and Falcons. Both were extremely bad units during the early stages of the season. So much so that those numbers make them considered still underperforming defenses for fantasy managers. While those numbers tell a completely different story in recent games, making them teams that have to scare from a matchup perspective. With everything at stake for managers in a championship environment, it is important to use a wider scope to determine your starting line-up. Cases can and will be made to sit the typical stud in favor of a lesser name. Using the mentality of “He’s carried me this far, I might as well stay with him” can only lead to disappointment and leaving the 2020 season empty-handed.
With all these pieces in motion, fantasy managers need to rely on matchup decisions more than ever. That’s what we’re doing for you here with the Woos and Boos for week 16. We Woo the players who are typically under the radar, but who can shine with plus matchups. While we’re banging those weekly startups that can be set up to disappoint when faced with tough situations. Since these games were also falling during the Christmas holidays, I wanted to put a little holiday spirit into this too. Let’s take a look at the players who fall on my “Naughty or Nice” list for 16 matches this week.
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Week 16 Woos (Nice)
Baker Mayfield @ New York Jets
Don’t look now, but Mayfield has been on fire for the past three games with a QB1 finish in every match. With the playoffs looking like an opportunity for the Browns, the offense has made its way. Mayfield over the season ranked in the top-5 overall in QBR (76.8), 10th in yards per attempt (7.6), and 11th in completed air yards (1990). That trend should continue to improve in Week 16 against a secondary Jets which is one of the worst in Pass DVOA (25.0%) of the season. And in the past four games, they have given up 22.39 FPPG to opposing QBs. Mayfield lined up nicely in this matchup and should be seen as a low-end QB1 you could start if you’re in trouble.
Leonard Fournette @ Detroit Lions
With Ronald Jones out again, things don’t look any better for Fournette in a crucial game for fantasy managers. Seeing the full workload in week 15, Fournette paid managers back with an RB1 finish with his performance of two touchdowns against a hard Falcons defense. About the season where he split time with Jones, he was somewhat disappointed as the numbers were inconsistent. Until last week, he had only three scores in the season and still has only 320 rushing yards and 187 receiving yards to his credit. He should improve those numbers significantly by Week 16 against a Lions Defense that puts up 137.3 per game on the ground and is one of the worst in the league in Run DVOA (1.1%). If you’ve held him as a manager for that long, congratulations as he should be easy in your lineup during championship week.
Michael Gallup v Philadelphia Eagles
Call this my longshot of the week, because Gallup could be a sneaky start in this game against the Eagles. While the goals and yards have been inconsistent all season, he has found the end zone in two of his last three games. His efficiency during the season has been terrible as he ranks second in the league in routes run (542), but ranks 33rd in goals (90) and 40th in receptions (49). But why the good feeling during the matchup? In the week 8 game, he hit seven receptions on 12 targets, so he got used. Also, the Eagles secondary has been one of the worst in the league in terms of points allowed for position over the past four games (45.80 FPPG). With Darius Slay locked in the match against Amari Cooper, Gallup will mostly see some cover and maybe a red-zone target or two. It can be seen as a WR3 in Week 16 and can be played in your starting lineup over players with more difficult matches.
Tyler Higbee @ Seattle Seahawks
It’s the end of the season, so it means it has to be Tyler Higbee’s production time, right? He has found the end zone in two in his last three games and has taken care of TE1 production during that period. And while Jared has seen Goff play up and down himself, it seems he relies on Higbee during tough moments. Facing the Seahawks Defense in Week 16 will be tough for the remote receivers, but as for the tight finishing position, they were one of the worst of the last four games with 17.08 FPPG. If you’re in a position where you need a streamer this week, Higbee could be your man to lock in as a bootable option.
Week 16 Angry (naughty)
Russell Wilson v Los Angeles Rams
How the mighty fell could be the term used for Russell Wilson in the latter half of the fantasy season. Since week 10, he’s only had two QB1 finishes as managers continued to keep him in the starting lineups based on the talent around him. But with the championships on the line, it may be time to make the hard decision to put Wilson on the bench. Given his game over the past few weeks, demonstrating the Rams Defense should be proof enough. But this defense was one of the best in the league, and in the past four matches, they’ve only allowed 11.08 FPPG to the QB with a -10.0% Pass DVOA. It’s hard to say, but there are plenty of other options to turn to this week to start Wilson again, as he will be seriously disappointed in this game.
Josh Jacobs v Miami Dolphins
After a very solid game in week 15 (RB11), many managers will see Jacobs in an extraordinarily positive light on his way to week 16. He is among the top in the league in all crucial categories. He is third in carry (245), sixth in yards (906) and fifth in score (10 TD in total). But this week he faces a very tough test in a solid Dolphins-run defense that has been the best in the league for the past four games (14.30 FPPG). Now, I’m not advocating Jacobs being benched this week, but with the tempered expectations, he should be considered more of an RB2 in value as opposed to a no-brainer RB1.
Brandin Cooks vs. Cincinnati Bengals
After being a strong starting option for much of the 2020 season, Cooks has fallen immensely since Will Fuller’s suspension. Receipts and distances were consistent, but he failed to finish higher than WR28 in the past five races. In a vacuum, if you look at the Bengals defense, this match-up looks like someone attacking as they score to the bottom in points allowed with 35.7 FPPG. But in the past four games, that number has dropped to 24.35 FPPG, third in the league. Coupled with the matchup against William Jackson in coverage, Cooks is a receiver to be seen as having a rocky start to week 16.
Evan Engram v Baltimore Ravens
With the quarterback carousel going on with the Giants, Engram has done a disappearing trick for fantasy managers at the worst of times. He’s only had 10 receptions in the past three games and hasn’t scored a TD since week 9. While he still ranks high on goals (95) and receptions (54), that may be more due to the lack of quality value on the position as a whole. As he enters Week 16, he faces another tough test against a Ravens Defense that allows only 11.00 FPPG to TE in the last four games. Also, no TE has found the end zone during that Engram stretch mark as a longshot to do the same. With other options available to stream for the week, Engram could be banked safely.
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