When it comes to offensive philosophy, the Yankees have been card counters at the Black Jack table.
Their system stacks up one sample of the output speed after another. They believe that commitment to that power-hitting methodology will translate to about a 0.600 win rate. Who cares what the 40 percent of losses look like from a shortage of left-wing bats, defensive stalwarts and athletes? If you win six out of ten you’ll make the playoffs and once there – with health and maybe some fortune – a team can win it all.
So, faced with a 15-game crisis, the Yankees remain tenaciously sticking to defense and risk-averse, station-to-station assault in the belief that over time – as an unshakable card counting system – their 60 percent solution will return. ?
Brian Cashman took part in a conference call with reporters on Monday to “confirm” that the Yankees “will not change their course” after 15 games. He emphasized patience rather than panic. Cashman, cited over three decades with the Yankees and two plus as GM, has taught him to get through the annual bad bits if you believe in your process and product.
“We know there are better days ahead,” Cashman said.
It should be unless you think the 2021 Yankees (5-10) are a .333 win percentage and AL’s worst team. Cashman and the organization have earned an advantage both from the doubt and from the time. They’ve spent a quarter of a century looking at every four-alarm dilemma in the regular season to play meaningfully at least until the end of September – and usually October.
Still, elements of these 15 games feel more worrisome than two bad weeks:
- Because it is not 15 games. Since the start of last season, the Yankees have been 38-37 and the 38 has been significantly created by overwhelmingly bad Orioles and Red Sox clubs last season. When faced with strong opposition, namely the Rays, the Yankees look disconnected and unglued. It may be unfair to include a shortened pandemic season as part of this year, but it is possible that the Yanks have already gone down the wrong path for more than 15 games.
- Pitching is better than ever at exploiting weaknesses with high spin and high speed dominant stuff. The whole league hits .233 (Aaron Hicks career average, by the way), the lowest in MLB history.
Have opponents deduced how to show a Yankees lineup made one-dimensional due to the lack of leftists and reluctance to move runners? No team sees fewer fastballs (four- and two-faced). The Yanks have been kept to the ground while striking out once every four bats (the worst in their history). The item that helps overcome shortcomings in their defense and spin length – the long ball – is way down: one homer every 30.7 at-bats compared to one every 20.4 last year.
Perhaps the fame, especially with the Rays, has brought the Yankees to a halt, and when they leave AL East the attack will revive. That starts on Tuesday night against Atlanta, although the opponent’s opponent is a right-wing Charlie Morton, who is very familiar with making them miserable like an Astro and Ray.
“We trust our players, we trust our process,” said Cashman.
Understood. But if the offense performs so poorly, why not upgrade the defense, athletics, baseball IQ, and left-wing presence – especially since Brett Gardner is on the left, Mike Tauchman in the center, and Kyle Higashioka entering a 50-50 catch timeshare with Gary Sanchez. better at bats.
The Yankees want to give Clint Frazier an expanded look. But is he a showcase warrior? The kind that will excel in a trial camp and be called up fifth overall due to elite bat speed and above-average foot speed and arm power? Is he a bunch of seductive, disparate abilities that don’t make up a whole high-level player due to the inability to think and adapt in real time? Frazier is more talented than Gardner, but is he a better player, someone to help a team win more often?
Hicks looks lost. I have no idea if the Tauchman who hit so well in 2019 is real. I do know that he is the Yankees’ biggest base-stealing threat, a better defender than Hicks and that an outfield by Gardner, Tauchman and Aaron Judge could save pitchers and runners. Gardner and Tauchman add left-wing bats and athleticism, at the very least.
Sanchez hasn’t been the Yankee’s problem. He is a misunderstood player because his body language suggests disinterest. He cares. But, like Gardner against Frazier, is Higashioka less talented than Sanchez, but a better player? His defense is better. And his bats were good. Will that be true if it is more exposed? Why not see by splitting the catch tasks?
I acknowledge Cashman’s reluctance to change course after 15 games. But the offense was so bad: why not improve defense and diversity and maybe get better production too?