NEW YORK (AP) – As states lift mask rules and relax restrictions on restaurants and other businesses due to declining case numbers, public health officials say authorities are overlooking potentially more dangerous COVID-19 variants quietly spreading across the US
Scientists generally agree that the US simply does not have enough grip on the variants to roll back public health measures and is at risk of breaking another phase of the pandemic after the virus has raged across the country and deadly for the past year. has become. nearly 500,000 people.
“Now is not the time to open up completely,” said Karthik Gangavarapu, a researcher at Scripps Research Institute whose team is working closely with San Diego health officials to look at mutant versions of the coronavirus. “We still have to be vigilant.”
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the daily averages for both coronavirus cases and deaths have fallen by about half in the past two weeks in the US. And more than 40 million as of Wednesday people – about 12% of the population – had received at least one dose of a vaccine.
But experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci and CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, say the downward trend could reverse itself if new variants emerge.
The problem, as experts see it, is that the US has been slow to set up a rigorous genetic surveillance system to track the spread of the variants and measure how much foothold they have gained here.
“The fact is, we’re kind of in the dark,” said Dr. Diane Griffin, who studies infectious diseases at Johns Hopkins. She said the variants are “probably widespread, even if we don’t know.”
The Biden government announced this on Wednesday it will spend $ 200 million on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to triple the levels of genetic sequencing to identify mutations that could make the coronavirus more contagious or deadly. Separately, Congress is considering a bill that would raise $ 1.75 billion for such work.
A more contagious and potentially deadly variant first identified in Britain has been found in at least 42 states. Other variants first discovered in South Africa and Brazil have been reported in small numbers in the US. The South African is especially worrisome because of the evidence that it can reduce the effectiveness of the vaccines.
‘We’re hunting a moving target. It changes a little too quickly for comfort, ”said Dr. Lucio Miele, a geneticist at LSU Health Sciences in New Orleans. “We have to be proactive. We are not invulnerable. “
Detecting variants and knowing where and how widely they spread could be critical in preventing another deadly wave of COVID-19 like the one that overwhelmed hospitals this winter.
In Europe in late 2020, as the surveillance began to highlight variants like the one that caused cases to get out of control and overwhelm hospitals in England, governments across the continent responded by imposing strict travel restrictions and lockdowns.
But in the US, the emergence of variants was met with a shrug by many state and local officials amid the overall decline in the number of confirmed infections.
Florida, for example, has the highest number in the country cases of the British variant, according to the CDC. But state leaders seem to have already left the coronavirus, including Governor Ron DeSantis.
When asked about the emergence of new species last week, DeSantis told reporters, “The media is clearly concerned about that. You really like that. “
Florida dropped many restrictions, hosting 25,000 fans for the Super Bowl in Tampa and 30,000 spectators for the Daytona 500 a week later in what has been the largest sporting event in the nation since the outbreak of the pandemic.
Restrictions are also being relaxed in California, which is recovering from a wave of COVID-19 that engulfed its hospital system in recent months. California officials expect a significant number of counties to offer indoor dining with limited capacity and open theaters, museums, and gyms. The state also reports the country’s second highest number of cases for the UK variant.
Elsewhere, states like North Dakota, Montana and Iowa have lifted mask mandates in recent weeks, and many more have relaxed restrictions on businesses such as restaurants, bars, and shops.
Public health experts say part of the problem is that the latest statistics can be misleading. For example, the CDC has reported only about 1,300 cases of emerging variants across the country.
“That’s an under number,” said Johns Hopkins epidemiologist Dr. Caitlin Rivers. She and others say this figure reflects the country’s underdeveloped genetic surveillance system.
Local health authorities face the same statistical problem.
Last month, Minnesota was the first state to discover the COVID-19 variant identified in Brazil. By testing about 2% to 3% of the state’s positive COVID-19 samples, the Minnesota Department of Health has since identified two cases of the Brazilian variant and 40 of the British.
“It’s a somewhat meaningless number,” said Kathy Como-Sabetti, an epidemiology manager for the health department. “It’s a tiny fraction of our total number of cases.”
Como-Sabetti said the state is bracing for a potential wave of disease if variants spread out of control.
Some scientists called for the US to test about 5% of the positive COVID-19 samples – which would represent about 3,900 sequences this week – to stay on top of variants. Currently, the US sequences between 0.3% and 0.5% of the virus samples. Great Britain tracks about 8% of positive cases and Denmark about 12%.
“We are woefully behind when it comes to sequencing technology,” said Miele.
In the meantime, Chicago and the surrounding suburbs allowed indoor dining again in January for the first time since October and reopened, with limited crowds, major cultural attractions including the Field Museum and Shedd Aquarium. Boston has opened gyms, cinemas and harbor cruises this month.
New York City restaurants were given the green light to dine indoors last week, despite concerns from some local officials.
“Are we braving the global pattern of variants doubling every 10 days?” tweeted City Councilor Mark D. Levy. “Or are variants actually growing here and are we just not told?”
AP Medical Writer Mike Stobbe in New York contributed to this report.
The Associated Press’s Health and Science Department is supported by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science Education Department. The AP is solely responsible for all content.