JERUSALEM (AP) – Tuesday’s Israeli parliamentary elections resulted in a virtual deadlock for the fourth time in the past two years, exit polls indicated, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an uncertain future and the country facing the prospect of an ongoing political stalemate.
The exit polls on Israel’s three main TV stations indicated that Netanyahu and his religious and nationalist allies, along with an anti-Netanyahu group of parties, both fell short of the parliamentary majority needed to create a to form a new government. That left Naftali Bennett, leader of the small nationalist Yamina party, as the potential kingmaker, although even that was not certain.
The election was seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s polarizing leadership style, and initial results showed that the country is still as deeply divided as ever, with a string of small sectarian parties dominating parliament.
The results also pointed to a continuing shift from the Israeli electorate to the right wing, which opposes concessions in peace talks with the Palestinians, highlighted by the strong action of an ultra-nationalist anti-Arab religious party.
Despite the unclear results, Netanyahu claimed his Likud party had claimed a “big victory” with fellow right-wing parties.
“It is clear that a clear majority of Israeli citizens are on the right, and they want a strong and stable right-wing government that will protect Israel’s economy, the security of Israel and the Land of Israel. This is what we are going to do, ”he said on Facebook.
Exit polls have often been inaccurate in the past, meaning the final results expected in the coming days could still shift the balance of power. Even if the final results are in line with Tuesday’s exit polls, there is no guarantee that Netanyahu will succeed in putting together a coalition.
Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, said initial exit polls indicated the election was still very close.
While Netanyahu, who is in the midst of a corruption process, may succeed in building a narrow government, he was denied a permit “to review the constitutional makeup of the state,” Plesner said.
“All three options are on the table: a Netanyahu-led government, a change coalition that will leave Netanyahu to the opposition, and an interim government leading to a fifth election,” he said.
Several right-wing parties have vowed never to sit in government with Netanyahu. And Bennett, a former Netanyahu ally turned harsh critic, declined to support either side during the campaign.
Bennett shares Netanyahu’s hard-line nationalist ideology and seems more likely to eventually join the prime minister. But Bennett has not ruled out joining forces with Netanyahu’s opponents.
Speaking to his supporters, Bennett said he would promote right-wing values in the next administration, but he did not endorse Netanyahu and even took several veiled swipes about the prime minister’s leadership style.
“This is the time for healing,” he said. “What was is not what will be.”
Bennett has indicated he will negotiate harshly with Netanyahu, demanding high cabinet ministries, and may even include a power-sharing arrangement that includes a period as prime minister.
In addition, their partners would also include some ultra-Orthodox religious parties and the “Religious Zionists,” a party whose leaders are openly racist and homophobic. One of the leaders, Itamir Ben-Gvir, is a student of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane, whose Kach party was labeled a terrorist group by the US before Kahane was assassinated in New York in 1990.
Trusting the party could be very embarrassing for Netanyahu on the international stage, especially as he tries to bring the new Biden government to justice.
The election campaign was largely empty of substance and was instead seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s divisive rule.
During the campaign, Netanyahu highlighted Israel’s highly successful coronavirus vaccination campaign. He was aggressive in getting enough vaccines for Israel’s 9.3 million people, and in three months the country has vaccinated about 80% of its adult population. That has enabled the government to open restaurants, shops and the airport just in time for election day.
He also tried to portray himself as a global statesman, noting the four diplomatic agreements he reached with Arab countries last year. Those agreements were made by his closest ally, then President Donald Trump.
Netanyahu’s opponents say the prime minister has messed up many aspects of the pandemic, most notably by allowing his ultra-Orthodox allies to override lockdown rules and fuel a high rate of contagion for much of the year.
More than 6,000 Israelis have died from COVID-19, and the economy remains weak with double-digit unemployment.
They also point to Netanyahu’s corruption trial, saying that someone charged with serious crimes is not fit to run the country. Netanyahu has been charged with fraud, breach of trust and taking bribes in a series of scandals he calls a witch hunt by a hostile media and legal system.
Even Netanyahu’s reputation as a statesman has suffered a bit in recent days. The United Arab Emirates, the foremost of the four Arab countries to have official diplomatic ties with Israel, made it clear last week that it did not want to be used as part of Netanyahu’s reelection after being forced to call off a visit. to the country. The Biden administration has also kept its distance, contrary to the support it received from Trump in previous elections.
Netanyahu’s Likud party was expected to become the largest individual party, with just over 30 seats in parliament with 120 seats, followed by centrist opposition Yesh Atid, with about 17 seats.
The rest of the parliament would be divided among a dozen other small parties. These range from an Arab party to left-wing secular parties to a few secular right-wing parties.
In total, Netanyahu and his allies are said to control 53 to 54 seats, while his opponents are expected to have about 58 or 59, with Bennett controlling the rest.
Netanyahu’s opponents included a diverse array of parties that had little in common beyond their shared hostility towards him. Even if his opponents eventually get the majority of the seats, it will be difficult for them to bridge their ideological differences on such lightning rod issues as the Palestinian state and the role of religion in the country.
They were also hurt by the breakup of the main Arab party in parliament. A renegade member of the party ran separately but didn’t seem to win enough seats to enter parliament, robbing the alliance of important votes.
Tuesday’s election was fueled by the breakup of an emergency government formed last May between Netanyahu and his main rival at the time. The alliance was plagued with infighting and elections were forced after failing to reach agreement on a budget in December.
Netanyahu’s opponents have accused him of fanning a deadlock in hopes of establishing a kinder parliament that will grant him immunity from prosecution.
After the results are in, the focus will be on the country’s figurehead president, Reuven Rivlin.
He will hold a series of meetings with party leaders and then choose whoever he believes has the best chance of forming a government as his prime minister candidate. That task is usually, but not always, entrusted to the head of the largest party. That will cause weeks of horse trading as the prime minister seeks to rally a government with promises of generous budgets and powerful ministries to his future partners.
During the vote in Jerusalem on Tuesday, Rivlin said the standoff has come at a price.
“Four elections in two years undermine public confidence in the democratic process,” he said, urging Israelis to vote again. “There is no other way.”