Imagine two hypothetical tight goals playing in teams in the National Football Conference.
Tight end No. 1 has 54 catches, 572 receiving yards, one touchdown and eight drops. When targeted by quarterbacks, tight end # 1 has a passer rating of 56.1. It catches 56.8 percent of the targets and averages 6.0 meters per target. According to DVOA, tight end No. 1 is in 40th place of the 43 qualified players on the position.
Tight end No. 2 has 49 catches, 551 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns, and zero drops. When targeted by quarterbacks, tight end # 2 has a passer rating of 148.0. It catches 89.1 percent of targets and averages 10.0 yards per target. According to DVOA, tight end No. 2 ranks first of the 43 qualified players on the position.
Pro Bowl voters picked tight number 1 to represent the NFC over tight number 2.
Of course, the first player is New York Giants tight end Evan Engram, while the second player is Green Bay Packers tight end Robert Tonyan.
Engram becomes the Pro Bowler, while Tonyan is one of the biggest Pro Bowl snubs.
Here is the equation above in graph form:
| Evan Engram | Robert Tonyan | |
| Catches | 54 | 49 |
| Goals | 95 | 55 |
| Catch% | 56.8 | 89.1 |
| Receiving yards | 572 | 551 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 10 |
| Recruit / target | 6.0 | 10.0 |
| Compass assessment when directed | 56.1 | 148.0 |
| Drops | 8 | 0 |
| DVOA rank (out of 43) | 40th | 1st |
| Yards per route driven | 1.28 | 1.64 |
| First downs | 28 | 30 |
| Clumsiness | 1 | 0 |
Tonyan is the first of the recipients and has a tight catch rate. He is tied with Travis Kelce for the NFL lead in touchdown catches, becoming just the third tight end in franchise history to hit 10 touchdowns alongside Paul Coffman (1982) and Keith Jackson (1996). After catching a touchdown pass against the Panthers on Saturday, Tonyan now has at least one score in five consecutive games. He and Kelce are the only tight ends averaging at least 10 meters per target. In general, Aaron Rodgers has more touchdown passes when targeting Tonyan than incompleteness. With 10 touchdown catches and an average of 10.0 yards per goal, Tonyan is on track to be just the fourth tight end in history to hit both marks in one season.
Engram, one of the most inefficient and inconsistent tight goals in football, has dropped more passes (eight) than Rodger’s omissions aimed at Tonyan.
The Pro Bowl often makes little sense. This is still one of the most baffling voting decisions in recent memory. In almost every way, Robert Tonyan is a better tight end than Evan Engram, as the numbers clearly illustrate.