On January 19, 2021, doctors will bring a patient from an ambulance to the Royal London Hospital in London.
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LONDON – A third national lockdown in England appears to have had little effect on the rising number of coronavirus infections, according to the findings of a large study, with “no evidence of a decrease” in the prevalence of the virus over the first 10 days of tighter restrictions.
The closely scrutinized REACT-1 study, led by Imperial College London, warned that health services would remain under “extreme pressure” and that the cumulative number of deaths would rapidly increase unless the prevalence of the virus in the community was significantly reduced.
The findings of the preprint report, published Thursday by Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI, come shortly after the UK recorded another record number of coronavirus deaths.
Government figures released Wednesday showed that an additional 1,820 people had died within 28 days of a positive Covid test. To date, the UK has registered 3.5 million cases of coronavirus, with 93,290 deaths.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks at a media briefing on coronavirus (COVID-19) in Downing Street on January 15, 2021 in London, England.
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Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the latest figures were “terrible” and warned, “There are still difficult weeks ahead.”
Johnson imposed lockdown measures in England on January 5, ordering people to “stay at home” as most schools, bars and restaurants had to close. The strict public health measures are expected to remain in effect until at least mid-February.
What were the main findings?
The REACT-1 study tests nose and throat swabs of between 120,000 to 180,000 people in the community in England at approximately monthly intervals. The latest results usually covered a period from January 6 to January 15.
The study compared the results with cotton swabs collected between November 13 and November 24 and those taken between November 25 and December 3.
Researchers found 1,962 positives from 142,909 smears taken in January. This means that 1.58% of the people tested had Covid on a weighted average.
This represents a more than 50% increase in prevalence rates since the results of the mid-December survey and is the highest recorded by REACT-1 since it began in May 2020.
Prevalence from January 6 to January 15 was highest in London, the study said, with 1 in 36 people infected, more than double the previous REACT-1 results.
A man wearing a mask as a preventive measure against the spread of Covid-19 is walking in London.
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In the South East of England, the East of England and the West Midlands, infections had also more than doubled compared to the findings published in early December.
“Our data shows troubling suggestions for a recent increase in infections, which we will continue to monitor closely,” Professor Paul Elliott, director of the program at Imperial, said in a statement.
“We all have a role to play in keeping this situation from getting worse and we should do our best to stay at home whenever possible,” he added.
The UK Department of Health and Social Care said the full impact of lockdown measures would not yet be reflected in the prevalence figures reported in the REACT-1 study.
“These findings show why we should not let our guard down in the coming weeks,” said Health Secretary Matt Hancock.
“It is absolutely vital that everyone does their part in reducing infections. This means staying at home and going out only where it is absolutely necessary, reducing contact with others and maintaining social distance,” said Hancock.