DJ LeMahieu will likely return to Yankees?

Earlier this low season, most industry insiders thought DJ LeMahieu and the Yankees would stick together even while LeMahieu tested the free waters. A recent report suggested that the experienced infielder may be ready to look elsewhere. A panel of MLB.com reporters met to discuss.

Alyson Footer (@check it now, moderator): A recent Yahoo report suggested that DJ LeMahieu is unhappy that the Yankees are not more aggressive in contract negotiations and has instructed his representation to open the floor to other suitors. What do we make of this? I feel like this would be a bigger deal in normal times than it is now. This has been such a slow winter.

Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand, executive reporter): Frankly, I don’t know how many other teams read what they see in media posts. It is difficult to know where the information is coming from.

Mike Petriello (@mike_vonk, analyst): To be honest, I was shocked to think that they had made it through January without a strong involvement from other teams already. Could that possibly be true?

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Fine sand: The Yankees have made it clear that they want LeMahieu back, and LeMahieu has indicated that they want to return to New York. As Gordon Gecko once said, the rest is a conversation.

Petriello: As much as I hate saying this, I think Mark is right. It’s not like other teams all, okay now we can think of LeMahieu. It doesn’t work like that.

Fine sand: I keep coming back to one thing: when is the last time the Yankees wanted to keep a player and that player left? Andy Pettitte in 2003 I think, but there were other circumstances that drew him to Houston. Robinson Canó wasn’t a player the Yankees would want back for the price he asked, so they made him a seven-year $ 175 million bid that they knew he would turn down.

If the Yankees want to get a player back, they will. When all is said and done, I fully expect LeMahieu to stay with the Yankees. These reports might give the teams already interested in LeMahieu a glimmer of hope. Can they now increase their offer and try to close a deal? Certainly. But I find it hard to believe the Yankees won’t have a chance to match that offer until LeMahieu signs elsewhere.

Petriello: This is also similar to How To Be An Agent 101 if you’re really trying to send a signal to the Yankees.

Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson, Blue Jays beat reporter): The Blue Jays have always liked LeMahieu, but they also see what the rest of us see: LeMahieu’s likely return to the Yankees. The Blue Jays were one of the ‘too interested’ multi-player off-season teams and it will continue as the league knows well how much financial flexibility they have, but finished second or third in the pursuit of a major free agent won ‘don’t get them anywhere. It’s encouraging to hear that LeMahieu is more open to talking to other teams, but are those other teams legit options or just tools used in his negotiations with New York?

Footer: Keegans point is a good one. Teams like the Blue Jays certainly don’t want to be “played” as a pawn to drive up the price. The Yankees may assume that they will offer LeMahieu the most after all. But you can’t increase the bidding without two teams. So maybe some gaming skill is at play here too?

Fine sand: And Joel Wolfe doesn’t need a beginner’s course to become a cop.

Hey, if the Blue Jays can drive up the price, they can force the Yankees to A) pay too much to get him back, or B) decide the price tag is too high. If it’s the former, they forced a division rival to spend more money than they wanted. If it is the latter, LeMahieu might end up in a Toronto uniform. Win win.

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Petriello: I also think that LeMahieu may need the Yankees more than he would like to show. It’s objectively hilarious to me that after years of playing in Coors, and all of the connotations that come with it, he’s going to the Bronx and, within two years as Yankee, does this:

Home OPS: 1.063
Road OPS: .793

That’s a difference of 240 points, without the story “my home park hurts me on the road” you can tell if you are a Rockie.

As Mark said, this seems to be the perfect match of player and team. (Aside from the fact that it would force them to cut Gleyber Torres short, which seems bad.)

Fine sand: The whole market is slow. That LeMahieu’s market is also creeping up shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.

Matheson: Blue Jays vs. New York is somewhat of an off-season theme. They, of course, sit on George Springer as their main target, but could view the Mets as their biggest challenger there. That aim sounds more realistic than LeMahieu given his desired conditions.

The Yankees being outbid by the Blue Jays for their own star would be a strange new world.

Petriello: You think the Yankees are already looking at what the Mets are up to, and losing DJ to a division rival wouldn’t make this much more fun off-season for the Steinbrenners. One foot by the fire can never hurt.

Fine sand: That’s exactly why reports like this one tend to get different responses. I don’t deny the validity of the report at all, but I’m not sure how much it will affect the way the teams negotiate.

Petriello: (It will not.)

Matheson: The Blue Jays don’t tend to make emotional decisions with their money either. I wish I could say the same for myself, but they stick to their appreciation.

Footer: Let’s take a look at this part of the Yahoo report: “Teams that have engaged in the LeMahieu camp say LeMahieu expects more than Josh Donaldson’s $ 92 million four-year deal with the Minnesota Twins and at least comparable to JD Martinez’s five years and $ 110 million with the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees, LeMahieu’s favorite club after two successful seasons in the Bronx, have not met those conditions. ”

Petriello: That’s better than the previous report that said he was looking for five years and $ 125 million, which was never realistic.

Fine sand: The Donaldson contract was always there where I thought LeMahieu’s contract would come in. I still think it’s about right.

The biggest question on LeMahieu’s contract is whether a team will move to a fifth year. If they do, chances are they’ll catch him. I think the Yankees will stick to four years, although that’s my personal opinion, not anyone on the team.

Petriello: I think his problem here is that he doesn’t have those two players’ track record anywhere, although he’s clearly much more valuable as a defender than Martinez. But he’s older than people think – July 33 – and some of the underlying Statcast stats weren’t great this year (declines in defense, ninth percentile in barrel rate, for anything you want to put into a shortened season).

He makes a lot of good, firm contact and he can play many positions, so he is valuable. But two years ago he got two years, $ 24 million. He is Surely get a nice raise about that. But I was thinking more along the lines of “four-ish for $ 70 million-ish.” There is a 0.0 percent chance that he will surpass $ 100 million.

Fine sand: I was waiting for Mike to come in with some stats to make me feel dumb. Thanks, Mike!

Matheson: I too hope one day to be described as ‘older than people think’.

Fine sand: Mike, be careful with 0.0 percent. I wouldn’t say the odds are he’ll get $ 100 million plus, but it’s definitely a non-zero chance.

Petriello: Maybe lower than zero.

Matheson: On the Blue Jays side, Mark Shapiro said: “There are still a lot of uncertainties within budget, but not with regard to payroll in the Major League.” Having Rogers, a communications company, as an ownership group offers a much different dynamic than an individual owner, but the club’s message remains that the money is there. At LeMahieu, term can be more of an issue than salary. This includes the Springer negotiations, or any other negotiation lasting longer than 2-3 seasons. By a fourth year, this young core will become expensive, so the Blue Jays are also looking at the dollars and cents in the long run.

Fine sand: What Keegan notes about the uncertainties of Toronto’s budget likely applies to any team at this point. There is still so much we don’t know about the 2021 season – when will it start? How many games? Will there be fans in the stands? If so, how much? – that teams are still working when it comes to salary budgets.

Matheson: And building on that point – where do the Blue Jays play? For example, if you sign a three-year deal and one (or most of) a season comes from a Spring Training stadium in Dunedin, Florida, how much will that affect your preference? The answer varies by player, but it is a real factor to consider.

Petriello: Keegan, if Springer and LeMahieu get similar deals … Springer is better suited to the Jays, right? And they wouldn’t get both … okay?

Matheson: Springer makes more sense between the two, not just on the surface, but when you consider what the Blue Jays’ fallback options would be. If they miss LeMahieu, they can easily focus on an upgrade at third base and lean more heavily on the versatile Cavan Biggio for second. That is an excellent outcome. Yes, the Blue Jays have Randal Grichuk in the midfield, but adding a player of Springer’s caliber to that position is such a rare opportunity, and one they’ll pursue for multiple offseasons.

The Blue Jays also have plenty of high-end infield prospects in Jordan Groshans and Austin Martin. In the outfield, their savior is not around the corner.

Petriello: The tl; dr of all this for me is … well, of Class he’s frustrated with the Yankees because Spring Training is due to start in six weeks. There are a billion unsigned free agents. We don’t know if there is a DH. And hey, what about that pandemic? I don’t blame him for being frustrated with the slowly changing market; I also think very little of this is DJ LeMahieu specific.

Fine sand: Well, the Yankees know they will have a DH. His name is Giancarlo Stanton.

Petriello: Sure, but not likely National League suitors. Not that he’d be the DH, but maybe someone they’re currently worried about should hold a glove, free up a spot.

Footer: Let’s wrap this up. Answer yes or no: LeMahieu will eventually re-sign with the Yankees.

Petriello: I hate going with chalk, but … yeah.

Fine sand: Yes. Four years, $ 86 million, fifth year option for $ 21 million (buyout of $ 8 million). So $ 94 million in total.

Matheson: Yes. With the Blue Jays, again, “close by.”

Petriello: I say four for $ 80 million with an easily attainable vesting option for a fifth.