The blockbuster Matthew Stafford trade that sent the 12-year veteran to the Los Angeles Rams probably won’t be the biggest trade with an off-season quarterback. Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson wants out, and his market is likely to be robust enough that the Texans can’t afford to play the waiting game with him.
In case Watson is shared, John McClain of the Houston Chronicle offered a photo of what it might take to pry the three-time Pro Bowler away from the Texans. He noted that the deal between the Lions and Rams will not play a role in setting up the market for Watson, but the two first-round picks, a third-round pick and the starting quarterback who landed Stafford in Los Angeles, don’t detract. McClain’s guess. with a Watson deal:
Two tips in the first round, two tips in the second round, and a few young defensive starters is a heavy price for any player. However, some teams would argue that no price is too high for a 24-year-old franchise quarterback.
One of the potential hurdles San Francisco would have to overcome in acquiring Watson is simply the sheer number of assets that could be required. They have their own first-round picks to work with, and their own second-round picks, so the draft fee wouldn’t be difficult.
Where things can get potentially interesting and tacky for San Francisco are the players the Texans would want in return.
The 49ers have some young players a team might covet in a trade, but given the nature of the situation with a franchise QB on the other side of the deal, the Texans’ starting point for negotiations would likely start with Nick Bosa and Fred. Warner.
It’s hard to imagine San Francisco covering the defensive cornerstones of their franchise along with all of the choices. A quarterback is important, but the Bosa and Warner deal would, in fact, signal a full rebuild of a defense that San Francisco had been rallying for three years. Watson is great and quarterback is the most important position on the field, but it seems drastic to blow up the base of the defense that led a Super Bowl run a season ago.
The 49ers may be willing to give one of those two players and a few picks to Houston, but giving away multiple groundbreaking All-Pro caliber players from an already formidable front seven contradicts anything that general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan have been doing from a team building standpoint over the past four years.
Admittedly, the whole nature of this deal goes against Lynch and Shanahan’s earlier off-season. They have shown a willingness to move concept picks when it comes at a relatively low cost. Their trades never involve first round picks, except for their # 31 to # 25 2020 draft trade.
Should San Francisco decide to wade in these waters, they could move DL Javon Kinlaw and LB Dre Greenlaw, for example. Two young defensive starters with the qualities to become bona fide stars in the NFL. They are also the type of players who could replace the 49ers more easily than players like Bosa and Warner. Kinlaw was the # 14 overall choice, but tracking down defensive tackles from starting caliber is easier than tracking down devastating edge rushers.
Arik Armstead is another player Houston may want to include. He has a fairly bulky contract, but a versatile defensive lineman who can stay on the field and be three times effective could be appealing to a young rebuilding defense.
Any move the 49ers make in the Watson sweepstakes is out of their comfort zone, and to complete a trade of this magnitude is going to hurt San Francisco a bit. They won’t be able to sneak out with a bargain, even in the universe where Watson is actively making his way to the Bay Area.