Raúl Castro retires at the age of 89, leaving behind the island’s maximum strength during the April Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), the first to be held after the death of his brother Fidel in 2016. The Castro brothers have held the reins in Cuba since 1959, which is now opening up to a new era with different men in power.
Happening at the worst moment in the Cuban economy in nearly 30 years, the Communist Party Congress, marking Raúl Castro’s departure from power, will have to accentuate reforms aimed at greater openness to private life. companies.
The new team has “awaiting the task of building its legitimacy, which can only come from its own political project, which will bring economic prosperity with social justice to Cuba,” said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue Analysis Center in Washington.
These men and women, under the leadership of the current president, are expected Miguel Diaz-Canel, 60 years old, at the next congress of the PCC, which will take place between April 16 and 19, under the maximum leadership of the party, will arrive at the center of power on the island.
Cuba it will remain socialist, but for specialists, constitutional legality will limit the superiority of ideology and allow for political opening.
In April 2019, a new constitution was adopted defending the “irreversible” nature of socialism in the country. She is “the daughter of her time and reflects the diversity of society,” said Raúl Castro, who after handing over the presidency to Diaz-Canel In 2018 he will now leave the leadership of the PCC.
Unlike its predecessor, which was unanimously approved in 1976, the new constitution received the approval of 78.3 percent of the popular vote and 22 percent of the rejection or abstention, a high level in the Cuban context. However, in recent months, artists, intellectuals and other sectors of civil society have begun to claim rights and freedoms in the country.
Faced with these allegations, the new team is expected to promote political reform of the state “to effectively manage the tensions manifesting in society,” he emphasizes. Shift lever given that at least in theory, the constitution allows for the devolution of the president’s power.
On November 27, an unprecedented peaceful protest by 300 artists was registered before the Ministry of Culture, demanding freedom of expression. While an animal welfare decree was passed a few weeks ago, this is considered the first victory of an unofficial civil society.
The rapid spread of the internet in the last three years on the island has allowed many Cubans to express their displeasure. The PCC, for its part, has already announced that it will face “political-ideological undermining” in social networks.
In front of Shift leverThis new ruling generation faces the great challenge of responding with a different political project than that of the generation of historical leaders, which grants society large quotas of freedom.
The tradition of the leaders of the revolution was to mobilize their hosts for active ideological support, but that is changing.
“Today the mobilization is selective. Not so much with an ideological but a political logic, in accordance with the government’s demand for neutrality rather than militancy,” said Cuban academic Arturo López-Levy of Holy Names University in Oakland, California.
Another important factor is the relationship the new political team maintains with the United States, which for some experts largely determines what happens on the island.
The new president of United States, Joe Biden, had argued in his campaign that he could lift the sanctions of his predecessor, Donald Trump, and resumed a policy of approach to the island, based on the demand for respect for human rights. However, Cuba has not been a priority so far.
“In fact, because of the dynamics that exist between Cuba and the United States, the United States directly and indirectly determines much of what happens. [en Cuba], of decision-making, even of Cuban leaders, ”said political analyst Harold Cárdenas.
The new Cuban political project should also build a pragmatic relationship with the United States, and one thing that could change is the strong military presence in the government, the PCC and the economy.
Much of the 280 sanctions the Trump administration has imposed on Cuba have targeted companies run by the military. Under a new policy, they could pass into civilian hands so as not to become the target of sanctions.
Even if they are civil or military, the state owns these companies. In the event that this does not happen and the hostility of the US continues, internally “Cuba will undergo a lengthy renegotiation of civil-military relations,” said López-Levy.
Then “the military will have the perfect justification for continuing to play its prominent role in the political and socio-economic sphere,” he concluded.
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