Raul Castro retires at 89, by leaving the island’s maximum power in April at the Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), the first held after the death of his brother Fidel in 2016.
The Castro brothers have been firmly in charge since 1959 the reins in Cuba, now opening to a new era with different men in power.
The new team has “while awaiting the task of building its legitimacythat can only come from a political project of its own that will bring economic prosperity and social justice to Cuba, ”Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue analysis center, told AFP in Washington.
These men and women, led by current 60-year-old President Miguel Díaz-Canel, are expected to arrive at the next congress of the PCC (only one) – between April 16 and 19– to the maximum leadership of the party, the center of power on the island.
AFP
Cuba will remain socialist, but for specialists, constitutional legality will limit the primacy of ideology and it can make a political opening possible.
In April 2019, a new constitution was adopted defending the “irreversible” nature of socialism in the country. Is “daughter of her time and reflects the diversity of society”Raúl Castro said then, who will now leave the leadership of the PCC following the handover of the presidency to Díaz-Canel in 2018.
Unlike its predecessor, which was unanimously approved in 1976, the new Magna Carta received the approval of 78.3% of the popular elections and 22% of the rejection or abstention, a high level in the Cuban context.
New scenario
However, in recent months, artists, intellectuals and other sectors of civil society they have begun to claim rights and freedoms in the country.
Given these claims, the new team is expected promote political reform of the state “To effectively manage the tensions that manifest in society,” said Shifter, since at least in theory the constitution allows for the devolution of the president’s power.
On November 27 an unprecedented peaceful protest by 300 artists for the Ministry of Culture, and demanded freedom of expression.
All the men of the Cuban Revolution. AFP photo
While a few weeks ago an animal welfare decree was passed, considered the first victory of unofficial civil society.
The rapid spread of the Internet over the past three years on the island has made this possible many Cubans express their dissatisfaction.
The PCC, for its part, announced that it will face “political-ideological subversion” in social networks.
For Shifter, this new ruling generation faces the great challenge of responding with a different political project than that of the generation of historical leaders, that gives society great amounts of freedom.
The tradition of the revolution’s leaders was to mobilize their hosts for active ideological support, but that is changing.
“Today the mobilization is selectiveNot so much with an ideological, but with a political logic that meets the government and demands neutrality rather than militancy, ”said Cuban academic Arturo López-Levy of Holy Names University in Oakland, California.
Con EE.UU.
Another key factor will be the relationship the new political team maintains with the United States, which is for some experts largely determines what happens on the island.
The new president of the United States, Joe Biden, had advanced that in his campaign be able to lift the penalties imposed by his predecessor, Donald Trump, and resumed a policy of approach to the island, based on the demand for respect for human rights. However, Cuba has not been a priority so far.
“In fact, because of the dynamics that exist between Cuba and the United States, the United States directly and indirectly determines much of what happens. [en Cuba], of decision-making, even of Cuban leaders, ”said political analyst Harold Cárdenas.
The new Cuban political project should too building a pragmatic relationship with the United States, and one thing that could change is the strong military presence in government, the PCC and the economy.
Much of the 280 sanctions the Trump administration has imposed on Cuba have targeted companies run by the military. Under a new policy they could pass into civilian hands not to be the target of sanctions.
Even if they are civil or military, the state owns these businesses.
a wall of Havana. AFP photo
Just in case that doesn’t happen and US animosity continues internally. “Cuba will see a long renegotiation of civil-military relationsr ‘, says López-Levy.
Then “the military will have the perfect justification for continuing to play its prominent role in political and socio-economic terms,” he concluded.
Source. AFP
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