Dr. Ashish K Jha (photo), Dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, has issued a warning about the new ‘supercovid’ variants
A leading public health expert says the new ‘supercovid’ variants could make the US coronavirus pandemic up to five times more deadly.
The new strain, known as B.1.1.7 – which was first discovered in the UK – has now infected at least 37 people in seven states and at least 30 countries.
Meanwhile, a close cousin has been found in South Africa, the UK and at least seven other countries, but not yet in the US.
It is feared that it is up to 70 percent more transmissible and more easily spread among children.
Dr. Ashish K Jha, Dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, says that because the new variant is “ significantly more contagious, ” there could be up to 10 million new infections in the US and as many as 150,000 deaths from now to the end. from February.
That’s why he argues that the US should also delay the administration of second doses of the coronavirus vaccine and instead give as many Americans as possible first shots.
In a press release, Jha wrote that a significant increase in COVID-19 infection rates will cause a much more deadly pandemic, despite the new variants not making patients any sicker.
He is referring to an epidemiologist from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who hypothetically compared a strain that was 50 percent more contagious to a strain that was 50 percent more deadly in a Twitter thread.
The B.1.1.7 strain first detected in the UK has now infected at least 37 people in seven states (above), while the strain found in South Africa has not yet reached the US
Jha warns that the pandemic could become “five times more deadly” as the new variants will infect more people and overwhelm hospitals. Pictured: Walter Smith, a respiratory therapist, provides oxygen to a COVID-19 patient before intubating him at Uniontown Hospital’s ICU, in Uniontown, Pennsylvania, December 16
He recommends that officials delay the administration of a second dose of coronavirus vaccine so that as many people as possible receive at least one dose. Pictured: A bottle of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine on a table before use in Topeka, Kansas, Dec. 30
The epidemiologist found that in a town with 10,000 infections, the 50 percent more deadly species would lead to about 193 new deaths after a month of spreading.
However, the 50 percent more transmissible variant would lead to 978 new fatalities after a month, which equates to a five-fold increase.
“Because a lower death rate from a very large number of cases results in many more deaths than a higher death rate, but a lower number of cases,” Jha explains in the press release.
The new species is estimated to represent approx [one percent] of all infections at this time, but due to increased infectivity, the best estimates are that it will be the majority of all new infections by March. ‘
Jha says that urgent aggressive measures are needed to limit the spread of the new strain as several health care systems experience severe shortages of beds and resources.
This new, more contagious variant will change the underlying dynamics of the pandemic, with an exponential increase in infections making the virus much more difficult to control and straining our stressed healthcare system.
“The US health care system is already teetering under the brunt of the pandemic caused by the current (old) tribe,” he wrote.
Some suggestions include tightening restrictions on indoor meetings and deploying large numbers of rapid tests for schools, offices and homes.
“We can expect, without further action, that as the new species takes hold, we will see an additional 10 million infections in the US between now and the end of February and during that time we could easily see 100,000 to 150,000 deaths,” he wrote.
But, perhaps most importantly, Jha says the Trump administration needs to step up national vaccination efforts.
The current policy of the government is to withhold about half of the available supply to ensure that people get a second dose.
However, Jha says officials should prioritize making sure that as many Americans as possible get at least one dose – especially seniors – and then second doses can be given as more vaccines come off the production line.
There is currently no evidence to suggest that the vaccines are not effective against the new variants, and a single injection has been shown to be at least 50 percent effective in preventing COVID-19 infection.
The UK has already opted for this and has delayed the second dose of both the Pfizer and Oxford University / AstraZeneca shots so that a larger group of people can get their first injections.
Between fewer vaccines approved for the new year than hoped for, rising infection rates and the threat of the new varieties, Jha urges immediate action.
“It is essential that we get ahead of this variant as it expands in the US,” he wrote.
“If we act aggressively now, we can avoid the worst-case scenario of more suffering, more deaths and more economic damage that awaits us in the coming months.”