The coronavirus pandemic will shorten life expectancy at birth for Americans by about a year due to the more than 336,000 deaths from the disease in the US in 2020, according to new research.
Researchers at the University of Southern California and Princeton predict life expectancy will be reduced by 1.13 years to 77.48 years, according to their study, published Thursday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
That’s the lowest estimated life expectancy since 2003 – and marks the largest one-year decline in at least 40 years, according to Science Daily.
The decrease in lifespan is likely to be even greater among minorities, the study found.
According to the study, life expectancy for blacks would shorten by 2.10 years to 72.78 years and for Latinos by 3.05 years to 78.77 years.
Among whites, the expected decline is 0.68 years to a life expectancy of 77.84 years – while overall, the difference in life expectancy between blacks and whites is expected to increase by 40 percent, from 3.6 to over five years.
“Our study analyzes the effect of this exceptional number of deaths on life expectancy across the country, as well as the implications for marginalized groups,” said study author Theresa Andrasfay, a postdoctoral researcher at the USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology.
The disproportionate effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the life expectancy of Black and Latino Americans is likely related to their greater exposure through their workplace or extended family contacts, in addition to receiving worse health care, leading to more infections and worse outcomes. , ”she added.
The coronavirus has apparently taken away much of the gains made since 2006 in reducing life expectancy between black and white, Science Daily reported.
Latinos, who have experienced a lower mortality rate than Caucasians, would see their survival benefit from over three years over Caucasians drop to less than a year.
“The huge drop in life expectancy for Latinos is especially shocking given that Latinos have lower rates than the white and black populations of most chronic conditions that are risk factors for COVID-19,” said study co-author Noreen Goldman, a professor in demographics. and public affairs at Princeton.
“The generally good health of Latinos prior to the pandemic, which should have protected them from COVID-19, has exposed the risks associated with social and economic drawbacks,” she said.
The study estimated life expectancy at birth and at age 65 for 2020 for the total U.S. population and by race and ethnicity.
The researchers used four scenarios of deaths – one in which the pandemic did not occur and three others, including COVID-19 mortality projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research center at the University of Washington.
“The greater decline in life expectancy for the black and Latino population is due in part to a disproportionate number of younger-age deaths for these groups,” Goldman said.
“These findings underscore the need for protective behaviors and programs to reduce potential viral exposure in younger individuals who may not consider themselves to be at high risk,” she added.
The expected pandemic-related decline in life expectancy is approximately 10 times that of the decline in recent years.
During the 1918 flu pandemic, life expectancy fell by as much as seven to twelve years.