The UK announced a surprise lockdown in London and parts of the country on Saturday. The decision was forced on Boris Johnson’s government due to an increase in the number of coronavirus disease cases (Covid-19). The UK is now seeing its third wave of infections – or, a second wave that seemed to subside until suddenly gained momentum – with the country registering about 35,000 new infections on December 17, the highest number in a single day.
The UK’s sudden decision can be attributed to the discovery of a new strain of the Sars-CoV-2 virus, which causes coronavirus disease, which, Johnson said while imposing the lockdown, was 70% more contagious than other strains of the virus. . Most new cases in the country are believed to be caused by this variant, with up to 60% of cases in London being caused by it.
The London lockdown, which turns the Christmas and holiday plans of many of the city’s residents upside down, was announced late Saturday afternoon, but didn’t take effect until midnight – resulting in a large-scale exodus from the city into the countryside, the sort of scrambling avoided at any time, but especially when a viral pandemic rages across town and the country. Days before announcing the lockdown, Johnson said it might be necessary to impose one after Christmas – but clearly his hand was forced by fear of a mutated species.
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It’s not just the UK; South Africa announced on Friday that a new strain of the Sars-CoV-2 virus has been detected in the country and could be driving the second wave of infections in the country. The country has seen a spike in the number of cases since mid-November, and the seven-day average of new cases is about 70% of the peak in the first wave, rising.
There are some interesting similarities between the new species in the UK and South Africa. Both, health authorities in the two countries claim, appear to be spreading faster. The two strains appear to share a mutation, one that changes the structure of the virus’s spike protein. Health officials in both countries believe that this could actually help speed the spread of the virus – after all, the spike protein is how the virus binds to receptors in human cells. In South Africa, scientists studying the variant claim that the new strain results in higher viral loads in patients – based on Pap smear studies.
Here’s what we know: both new species (the South African appears to be older and more widespread, based on what the country’s health authorities say) show a significant number of mutations, including a shared one (N501Y is what scientists call it) that affect the spike protein. And both types seem to be more contagious.
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Viruses mutate, so the fact that Sars-CoV-2 exhibits mutations is not strange, nor is it a cause for concern. But these mutations can affect the virulence and effectiveness of vaccines and that’s certainly something that deserves further investigation.
Here’s what we don’t know: we’re not sure if the new species is more contagious; we are not sure whether the new strain results in higher viral loads in patients (which in turn makes it more infectious); we are not sure if the new strain causes more severe forms of Covid-19 (initial evidence seems to suggest not, but we are not sure) and results in more deaths; and we don’t know if the vaccines that have proven successful against the virus so far are effective against the new strain.
That’s a lot of we-don’t-know, but that’s exactly the way science works. It will be interesting to see if the current strain (s) of Sars-CoV-2 detected in India exhibit any of the mutations seen in the new strain in the UK and South Africa, especially the N501Y.