The mutated coronavirus strain spreading in the UK appears to be more contagious and is likely to lead to more hospitalizations and deaths next year, a new study showed.
The variant is 56% more transmissible than other strains, the study by the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. There is no clear evidence that it leads to more or less serious illness.
The UK government had previously said that the mutated variety appears to be as much as 70% more transmissible than other circulating strains. In addition, it has nearly two dozen mutations that could affect proteins made by the coronavirus, Patrick Vallance, the UK’s chief scientific adviser, said Dec. 19.
That has raised concerns that tests, treatments and vaccines that have just started may be less effective, although the European health regulator said the variant probably isn’t different enough from previous ones to get the Pfizer Inc. shot. and BioNTech SE. Countries such as Australia, Denmark and Singapore have also discovered the species.
Read more: Why the UK‘s Mutated Coronavirus Is it stirring up concerns: QuickTake
Measures like England’s national lockdown in November are unlikely to reduce reproduction numbers – the new infections estimated to stem from a single case – to less than 1 unless schools and universities are also shut down, the report said. It also said vaccine roll-out may need to be accelerated to limit their spread, at a rate of 2 million people a week, compared to the current rate of 200,000.