Daily deaths from Covid-19 in the US seem to be finally declining from its highest ever level, followed by the improvement in case and hospital admission data, prompting cautious optimism from public health officials and medical professionals.
Deaths in the country peaked in mid-January, when the seven-day average of reported deaths was about 3,300 per day, compared with 1,100 fatalities a day just two months earlier, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data collected by Johns Hopkins University. .
While daily deaths are still nearing their all-time high, and well above the highest rates during previous peaks, the average number of deaths has fallen overall in recent days. On February 1, the seven-day mean daily deaths was 3,172. By Wednesday, that number had dropped to 2,765, according to the Journal analysis of the latest data from Johns Hopkins. Thursday saw a slight rise to 2,781, which appeared to be impacted by Ohio adding a backlog to Covid-19 fatalities.
The number of additional deaths from the pandemic, according to health researchers, is significantly higher than the reported deaths from Covid-19, partly due to underreporting caused by problems such as a shortage of diagnostic tests in the early pandemic. Ohio officials said Wednesday that the state has underreported perhaps 4,000 Covid-19 deaths due to “litigation issues,” while a year-end investigation in Indiana revealed 1,507 additional fatalities.
The recent decline in Covid-19 deaths reinforces a trend of hopeful signs after a brutal rise in winter, with cases and hospitalizations showing declines first. Deaths are a lagging indicator, and it can take several weeks for people admitted to hospitals for serious illness to succumb to the disease, said William Janssen, a pulmonologist and chief of the intensive care team at National Jewish Health in Denver.
“Patients who die of Covid typically do not die the day they are hospitalized,” said Dr. Janssen.
The seven-day average of newly reported coronavirus cases in the US, which helps smooth out data reporting irregularities, fell to 101,757 on Thursday, its low in three months, according to data from Johns Hopkins. Hospital admissions have also fallen to their lowest level in about three months, and pressures have eased in intensive care units, with 15,190 Covid-19 patients needing intensive care treatment.
The latest federal data on nursing homes – through Jan. 31 – shows that it appears that six consecutive weeks of declining numbers of new residents are dying in connection with these facilities, with the rate of declines accelerating in recent weeks. The last count of 2,872 Covid-19 deaths in the week ending Jan. 31 is about half the weekly level seen at the end of December.
The latter number is likely to be revised upwards in future reports, based on recent trends, but not enough to break the trend of smaller weekly mortality counts. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services publish a new week of nursing home data every Thursday.
With long-term care facilities consistently accounting for more than a third of all deaths in the U.S., the urge to vaccinate these facilities and curb a pandemic-long problem of deadly outbreaks could also potentially lead to a noticeable drop in the total number of deaths. in the U.S. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, nearly 4 million people in long-term care, including residents and staff, have received one or more vaccine doses.
“I think we are seeing real signs of improvements in terms of mortality in the Covid nursing home, and given the high rate of deaths from long-term care facilities, I think we will see a further decline in overall mortality in the coming days,” said David Grabowski, a professor at Harvard Medical School, via email.
Dr. Janssen also said he expects the number of deaths to continue to decline in the near term, although he is concerned about possible outbreaks caused by new, more contagious variants of the virus. He also said he is concerned that fatigue over social aloofness and mask wearing could also cause coronavirus infections and eventually cause the death toll to rise again.
“Vaccinations will help prevent infections and deaths,” he said, “but we still have a long way to go on this front.”
California, the most populous state, recently surpassed New York as the state with the most Covid-19 deaths, with more than 45,000 reported fatalities. Still, California, which is just beginning to emerge from a protracted and deadly wave, has fewer deaths per 100,000 people than New York, according to data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
The daily death toll in California remains high, with a 14-day average of 464 deaths on Wednesday, down from a peak of 542 on Feb. 1, according to the California Department of Public Health.