With the arrival of spring and after a tiring year of COVID-19 restrictions, Americans are eager to return to a sense of normalcy.
However, many health experts are pushing for patience and warning of a possible fourth wave on the horizon, with more than a dozen states showing early signs of an increasing number of cases.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s leading infectious disease expert, raised the alarm this week, expressing concern that we may reopen sooner than we should.
“There were times when we thought things were getting under control and then it exploded again,” Fauci said. “So while we are moving in the right direction, we need to keep our foot on the pedal with regard to public health measures.”
In the past week, more than a dozen states have seen an increase in their daily case averages. Parts of the upper midwest are showing particularly troubling trends, including in Michigan, where cases have been increasing since late February.
Experts and officials fear that a combination of easing restrictions and spread of the British variant could trigger the rise in Michigan – a potentially troubling sign for other areas as mass vaccination rolls out.
“Real concern” in Michigan
The state of Great Lake currently has the fourth highest average of new COVID-19 cases per capita, with New Jersey leading the way. In the past three weeks, the daily case average has doubled. In the past week alone, the state average is up 53%.
The seven-day average is now more than 2,500 new cases per day, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and on Wednesday, Michigan reported a total of 3,164 new cases, the highest one-day total since early January.
In comparison, California, with about four times the population of Michigan, recorded just 415 more cases than Michigan this week.
“Despite several months of declining trends, we are still at a high level of community and community transmission [the U.K.] variant that is known to be more transferable, there is a real concern that you could quickly find yourself in a situation of exponential growth in cases that again threaten to overwhelm healthcare, ” explains Josh Petrie, a research assistant professor in the Department of Epidemiology at the University of Michigan School of Public Health.
Michigan has seen a steady increase in hospital admissions since late February and 1,000 people are currently being hospitalized, Dr. Sarah Lyon-Callo, director of the MDHHS Bureau of Epidemiology and Population Health, said at a news conference Wednesday – up from 45% since February 25.
In contrast, the seven-day average of hospital admissions this week is down 8.4% nationwide and 73% from its peak in January, according to data from the CDC.
According to the CDC, hospital admissions in Michigan are up 24% in the past week, and the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia PolicyLab reports that emergency room visits and hospital admissions are increasing in Michigan.
Wayne and Genesee counties (home to Detroit and Flint) and Macomb County have viral reproductive rates in excess of 1.3, indicating “substantial transmission,” and the organization’s models predict a potential doubling of the incidence in these counties will take place over the next 3-4 weeks.
While the number of deaths in the state is still declining, Lyon-Callo warned that deaths are a lagging indicator. Therefore, the number of COVID-related fatalities could rise in the coming weeks.
Emergence of British variant
According to the CDC, Michigan is currently ranked second in the country for the most commonly reported cases of the B.1.1.7 variant first discovered in the UK, with more than 725 confirmed cases in 31 counties.
“This variant is highly transferable,” said Dr. Nigel Paneth, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics and pediatrics at Michigan State University, on ABC News. “It may be slightly more likely to cause serious illness, but it appears to be preventable by current vaccines.”
The variant is found in the more densely populated parts of the state, with more than half of the B.1.1.7 variants identified as a result of an outbreak within the Michigan Department of Corrections, the state’s health department said.
In addition to the B.1.1.7 variant that drives increased transmission, there is a confluence of factors that may be driving the rising readings, Dr. Tara Smith, professor of epidemiology at Kent State University College of Public Health, told ABC News. starting with the relaxation of restrictions on food, entertainment and other businesses, by Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s administration in recent weeks.
“I believe we are also seeing COVID fatigue, along with, in our state, a modest relaxation of public health guidelines,” Paneth said. “There is now clearly an unfortunate trend for the general public to relax distance measures and for authorities to relax public health restrictions. This is a major concern in light of the ongoing evolution of new strains of the COVID virus. “
Further, with more children back in school and participating in sports programs, school-related COVID-19 cases are on the rise in the state, according to data from the state.
“The largest number of outbreaks are in primary schools, 162, with 54 new outbreaks this week,” Callo-Lyon said. Children ages 10-19 now have the highest COVID-19 case rate in Michigan, a rate that “is increasing faster than that of other age groups.”
Nationally, however, new cases of children have been dismissed for the eighth straight week, according to a weekly report from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association.
However, she said these new cases are related to extracurricular activities such as sports, and are not in a classroom. As a result, Michigan will begin mandating testing among high school student athletes.
“The classroom itself has not been a strong signal of outbreaks. They are more activities related to schools, and including sports, but not limited to sports, ”added Callo-Lyon.
‘Grind our teeth’
The outbreaks come as the state prepares to open its largest mass vaccination site at Ford Field in Detroit, officially opening March 24.
“It’s time we put our teeth together and keep doing the work we need to do until the last second of this event is over. If we want to get back to normal … we all need to get vaccinated, encourage our loved one. friends and colleagues and neighbors to do that, ”Whitmer said Thursday.
State officials say the state is vaccinating at the rate of 90,000 people a day, but so far less than 25% of the state population has received at least the first dose of the vaccines.
The percentage is lower for cities like Detroit, dropping to 15.1%. Earlier this month, the city of Detroit was criticized for choosing not to be assigned the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan had said the intention was to stick with the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines “for as long as possible” because they were “the best.” However, the mayor’s office later retracted its comments, saying the city is “excited” to offer three highly effective vaccines to its residents.
Experts agree that the key to avoiding a potential resurgence is not only to not only vaccinate as many Americans as possible as soon as possible, but to continue to pursue appropriate mitigation efforts.
“Getting as many people as possible vaccinated as soon as possible will be helpful in reducing the impact of a revival. However, I am concerned that it will take about a month and a half to get both doses and develop full immunity. Transfer is much faster than that, ”said Petrie. “So continuing to mask, socialize and avoid unnecessary contact with the community will be important until we can get a much larger proportion of the population fully vaccinated.”
“We all still need to be careful and realize that we’re not out of the woods yet,” Smith concluded.