The rate of COVID-19 deaths is set to plummet over the next four weeks, according to a new forecast that shows a relentless wave of cases is ebbing and the US continues to distribute vaccines.
According to the COVID-19 Forecast Hub of the University of Massachusetts Reich Lab, which released a four-week forecast on Tuesday, the country is expected to have about 12,666 dead in the week ending March 13. The prediction is based on independent models collected in conjunction with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the toll would drop by 43% from the 22,062 deaths reported last week.
While cases have been declining for a month, deaths – a lagging indicator – haven’t dropped much from record levels, data from Johns Hopkins shows. That should start to change this week, and the numbers are likely to improve gradually over the four week period. The pace would be the slowest since the period ended November 28.
(Tabulation methods vary, and the widely used numbers from the COVID Tracking Project show that the number of deaths is already declining to a greater extent.)
The vaccine rollout is in its infancy, with only 4.5% of Americans receiving the required two doses, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker. But Americans also use masks at near record levels and move less, according to survey and mobility data collected by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
In addition, the CDC estimates that about 83.1 million Americans may already be infected, with many having acquired a degree of natural immunity that has been shown to last for at least five months.
Still, there are many reasons to remain vigilant. The US is starting to see new variants of the virus spread more easily, and many residents have been forced to huddle in homes and shelters to await a winter storm. Additionally, Americans tend to relax mitigation measures once cases start to ebb in their community.
The US released 53,410 new cases on Monday, bringing the seven-day average to 86,002, the lowest since Nov. 3, according to Johns Hopkins. According to the data, there have been a total of almost 487,000 deaths.
According to the data from the tracking project:
- The number of people currently hospitalized with the virus is down from a week earlier in all but North Dakota and Wyoming.
- South Carolina had the most cases per capita for the past week.
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