Trends in COVID-19 cases are finally starting to divide in California that likes lockdown and Florida that is open all day, the data reveals.
California now sees about half fewer new COVID-19 cases per day compared to Florida, the Financial Times’ analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University.
On Wednesday, California saw 5,750 new cases – or about 14 per 100,000 people in the population – and 1,084 deaths, with a test positivity rate of 3.45 percent.
In Florida, the test positivity rate was nearly twice that, at 6.76 percent, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project. The state saw 7,128 new cases – nearly 27 per capita – and 127 additional deaths.
Parallel trends between the two states last month left public health experts like Biden adviser Jeff Zients scratching their heads about how a state implementing some of the strictest and most sustainable measures in the country (California) couldn’t fare better than Florida, that never imposed mask mandate.
Experts say lockdowns are unlikely to be as helpful now as they were at the start of the pandemic, but the new data suggests California is ahead of Florida.
New COVID-19 cases in California (blue) began to decline more sharply in late January than in Florida (green). The west coast state saw about 14 new infections per capita on Wednesday, compared to 27 per capita in Florida
On Jan. 1, with the post-Thanksgiving Covid surge in cases still flooding the U.S. and the second post-holiday wave just starting to crash, California saw nearly twice as many cases as Florida.
As of day one of 2021, California saw about 90 new coronavirus infections per day per capita, compared to 49 in Florida.
California stay-at-home orders had been “ indefinitely ” extended on Dec. 29, effectively incarcerating millions of people in Southern California.
Meanwhile, Florida was doing more or less business as usual. In fact, Republican Governor Ron DeSantis extended an executive order that prevented local governments in his state from imposing restrictions that would render residents unemployed or close businesses.
According to a Wallethub analysis, Florida has the sixth most lax COVID-19 restrictions in the country. Statistics say Oklahoma, South Dakota, Iowa, and Arkansas have fewer restrictions on things like eating and wearing masks.
Still, it fared better than California – for a moment.
New cases in both California and Florida continue to decline, as they have since early January, but the decline in the West Coast state is much greater than that of the Sunshine State.
Since February 10, the number of new cases per capita in California has halved, from 29 per 100,000 people to 14, as of Wednesday.
Florida has slowed down COVID-19.
Yesterday, the state registered 27 new cases per capita, up from 35 on February 10.
That is still a significant drop – of 23 percent – but by no means as severe.
The switch came at the end of last month. The number of cases per capita was consistently lower and declining in Florida, but those in California were in true freefall (although the decline has leveled off some there too).
Suddenly, daily case studies in California dropped below those in Florida, and the gap is widening.
On January 25, Governor Newsom lifted the stay-at-home orders in effect for Southern California.
For now, the decline in the number of cases there is still strong and persistent. Cases continue to fall in Florida as well.
But both states face a possible turnaround.
Florida has more cases of the UK’s B117 ‘super-covid’ variant than any other state in the country, with 489.
California has less than half the number, but has the second largest number of B117 cases in the US, with 204.
Noted Fred Hutchinson’s researcher, Dr. Trevor Bedford, said last week that the two states are the ones to be viewed as predictors of how variants might affect the trajectory of the US pandemic in a broader sense.
And California has a new problem: a homegrown variant that experts say will make up 90 percent of cases in the state next month, and a small set of data suggests could be more deadly.
