The number of new cases is still “dramatically higher” than last summer’s peak, said the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Rochelle Walensky Monday.
But understanding what the rest of the year will bring depends on who you ask. Some experts embrace optimism and others brace themselves for a storm. Many say it is too soon to know. All are concerned about the new variants. And they hope you’ll do your part to keep the number of variants from growing.
“Despite trends going in the right direction, we are still in a very serious situation,” Walensky said Monday at a White House briefing on the coronavirus. “Covid-19 continues to infect too many people.”
Walensky warned that the spread of variants is “a threat that can reverse the recent positive trends we are seeing.”
Viruses change as they spread, and with so many cases worldwide, the coronavirus has come up with many opportunities. Some changes are harmless. Others make it more contagious.
That’s what happened to the variant first discovered in the UK. Its ability to transmit is such a concern that some experts like Dr. Peter Hotez, the Dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, describes the coming wave as a “hurricane.”
This, he says, is the eye of the storm.
Hotez told CNN on Tuesday that the new variants first found in the UK, South Africa and Brazil could reverse current positive trends.
“Everything is going in the right direction. The numbers are going down. We are starting to go up in terms of vaccinations. Everything looks promising. Unfortunately we have these peak variants that seem to be increasing and that really worries me.,” Said Hotez.
Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm called the variant threat a ‘category five hurricane’ and warns that the country has not seen an end to new files yet.
Even with vaccinations underway, more cases could result in more hospitalizations and deaths.
And while it hasn’t happened yet, experts fear the virus could mutate in such a way that tests, vaccines, and antibody treatments sensitive to the original coronavirus no longer work. More research is needed, but so far there is evidence from studies of vaccines and antibodies that they still work against the variants, although some may not work as well. Vaccine manufacturers are already looking for ways to modify them if necessary.
Variants are one of the reasons Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, wants you to be vaccinated as soon as it is your turn.
“You should get vaccinated if it becomes available as soon as possible,” Fauci said in a newsletter with the White House Covid-19 response team. “Viruses cannot mutate if they don’t replicate. And if you stop their replication by vaccinating on a large scale and don’t give the virus an open playing field to keep responding to the pressure you put on it, you don’t get mutations.”
Still other experts are more optimistic that the country will stay ahead of the variants. Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, told CBS on Sunday that things need to level off even if the variants cause “localized hotspots.”
Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of the School of Public Health at Brown University, said the country “looks much better” today than it did three weeks ago. “Business is slowing down and the optimism and outlook for the future is very bright once we get to May and June,” said Jha. “The coming months can be pretty tough.”
Jha said the “issue” that could shape the future of how the country experiences the pandemic will be how it handles the variant. It can cause the problems Osterholm warned about, Jha said; However, if people have a short-term strategy to manage it and stay vigilant, “it will get much, much better.”
Dr. Claudia Hoyen, an infectious disease specialist at University Hospital Cleveland Medical Center, thinks with the variants and the slow rollout of vaccines, it’s too early to know what the future of the pandemic will look like.
Short-term, Hoyen said she’s pretty sure things will look the way they have for a while.
For the foreseeable future you will still be wearing masks and you shouldn’t eat inside on Valentine’s Day.
“We’ll learn more every day,” Hoyen said. “I know people don’t want to hear that because it’s not something I want to say. I’d like to say that in March it will look like this, and in June it will look like this, but unfortunately there are so many moving pieces in this puzzle. Every time we think we get to a place where we know what to expect, something different happens. “
Hoyen said she understands people’s frustration.
“But they also need to understand that this really isn’t anything we’ve ever seen before and it’s changing so fast that, you know, you really have to try as best you can to stay one step ahead of that,” said Hoyen. said.
To stay one step ahead, you know the drill. Keep physical distance. Wear a good mask. Wash your hands. Avoid crowds.
“We have to be patient,” said Hoyen. “It’s hard, very hard. We’re human, we love each other. But we still have to stay on our guard. You don’t want to be that person who created another. Variant and you want to stay safe.”
“Ultimately what we want is for us to get through all of this together so that, maybe next Christmas, things will hopefully look better and we can celebrate with everyone who’s here today.”