The recent hike in interest rates may cause nervousness for some investors, but buying behavior is unlikely to occur among the largest whales in the stock market – the companies themselves.
The swollen cash stacks of US companies and the rosy outlook for earnings raise expectations that more executives will follow in Warren Buffett’s footsteps and unleash a wave of stock buybacks, adding additional support to the stock market after last year’s buybacks hit strong. have fallen. At the very least, the purchases could help offset an increase in stock supply this year through a parade of specialty acquisition companies going public and a record number of secondary offers.
“When you see cash flow accelerating, you see buybacks shortly after,” said Gina Martin Adams, chief equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. “There is an enormous amount of cash that has nowhere to go.”
S&P 500 companies came in this quarter with more than $ 2.2 trillion in cash and so is Wall Street forecast earnings growth of 24% in 2021 according to data collected by Bloomberg.
Buybacks of benchmark index companies are already showing signs of recovery. Repurchases rose to $ 120 billion in the last three months of 2020, up 28% from the previous quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. For the first time since the Covid-19 crisis, more than half of the index bought back shares. Still, buyback activity remains well below the pre-pandemic level of $ 197.7 billion in the first three months of 2020.
Should buybacks return to the average level in the five years leading up to 2020, buyback purchases would increase by nearly 50% by 2021, Adams said. In a survey conducted by RBC Capital in mid-March, about 60% of it analysts said buybacks are a priority for management teams looking to put money in. Only dividends got a higher score of 76%, Lori Calvasina, head of the bank’s US equity strategy, said in a note to clients.
“US equities will be strong in 2021, supported by a rebound in buybacks, solid dividends, a recovery in margins and strong economic fundamentals,” she wrote, also noting that expensive valuations are likely to limit earnings.
Muted effect
Not everyone is optimistic about the buyback effect. While buyback activity is poised to pick up this year, it is unlikely to reach pre-pandemic levels due to high price-earnings multiplication and declining investor enthusiasm for buybacks, said Jill Carey Hall, Bank of America Corp. . Rising corporate purchases will also be dampened by a boom in companies raising money by selling stock, Hall said in an interview.
The bank’s corporate clients bought back $ 3.7 billion worth of stock last week, the second-highest total ever recorded, Hall and her colleague Savita Subramanian wrote in a research note. The purchase was led by technology companies, but sectors such as healthcare, consumer discretionary and financial services accelerated purchases.
Technology companies, many of which have boomed in the past year, have remained steadfast in their purchases versus other industries. Tech accounted for 44% of total S&P 500 repurchases in the fourth quarter, up from 27% in the same period a year ago. Industries that are slashing buyback activities, such as consumer discretionary and industrials, are poised to bring in more shares as earnings rise, said Adams Adams of Bloomberg Intelligence.
Top buyer
By far the largest buyer was Apple Inc. The technology giant bought back $ 24.8 billion in shares last quarter, more than the next four largest buyers combined, according to Bloomberg dataThe iPhone maker could lead the way next month, when it typically keeps investors updated on its capital return plans coupled with second-quarter fiscal profit.
Of course, some investors frown on companies that put money to work by buying their own stock rather than investing in things like acquisitions or research and development. But even Buffett is a fan these days. The Berkshire Hathaway Inc. chief, who has been himself critical of buybacks in the past, spent more than $ 24.7 billion of his company’s money on buybacks in 2020 and praised Apple’s purchase for increasing the importance of Berkshire in the business.
Berkshire Hathaway has continued to take its own shares in 2021 and is likely to buy more, the billionaire investor wrote in his annual shareholder letter last month.
“The process provides investors with an easy way to own an ever-increasing portion of exceptional companies,” Buffett said before quoting Mae West, “Too much of a good thing can be … great.”
– With the help of Tom Contiliano and Elena Popina