Photographer: Karim Sahib / AFP / Getty Images
Photographer: Karim Sahib / AFP / Getty Images
Dubai, United Arab Emirates (AP) – Masks from the moment you step inside. Bars full and pulsating like it’s 2019. Social media stars wave bottles of champagne. DJs play party songs during multi-hour brunches.
Ever since Dubai became one of the world’s premier tourism destinations, it has promoted itself as the ideal pandemic vacation destination. According to analysts, it cannot afford otherwise as the virus is shaking the foundations of the city-state’s economy.
With cavernous shopping malls, hectic construction and legions of foreign workers, Dubai has been built on the promise of globalization, borrowed largely from aviation, hospitality and retail – all badly affected by the virus.
Now reality is catching up with the dreaming emirate. Now that the peak tourism season is in full swing, coronavirus infections are rising to unprecedented heights. The daily number of cases has nearly tripled in the past month, forcing Britain to close its travel corridor with Dubai last week. But in the face of a growing economic crisis, the city will not be locked.
“The Dubai economy is a house of cards,” said Matthew Page, a non-resident scientist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The competitive advantage is that it is a place where rules don’t apply.”
While most countries banned tourists from the UK for fear of the fast-spreading virus variant found there, Dubai, home to around 240,000 British expats, kept its doors open for the holiday season. Emirates operated five daily flights to London’s Heathrow Airport.
Within days the new strain of virus had arrived in the emirates, but that didn’t stop reality TV and football stars from fleeing the UK lockdown and wintry weather in front of Dubai’s bars and beaches – without taking a coronavirus test before entering went on board. Scenes of pre-pandemic revelry were scattered across British tabloids. Faced with backlash, Instagram influencers spotted at raucous hunting parties declared their journey “ essential. ”
Dubai was happy with the influx. According to data provider STR, the hotel occupancy rate rose to 71% in December. The London-Dubai air route was the busiest in the world in the first week of January, said OAG, an airline data analysis company.
“People are already fed up with this pandemic,” said Iris Sabellano of Dubai’s Al Arabi Travel Agency, adding that many of her clients have been forced to quarantine after testing positive for the virus on arrival or before departure. Travelers coming from a select list of countries do not need to undergo any tests before traveling, but must all be at Dubai airport.
“Now that vaccines come out, they feel like this isn’t the end of the world, they’re not going to die,” she said.
For those who die of COVID-19, the long-haul airline Emirates offers to pay $ 1,800 to cover funeral expenses.
As the outbreak worsens, it looks like the stampede will slow. Israeli tourists, who came in tens of thousands following a standardization agreement between the countries, have disappeared due to new quarantine regulations. A decision to suspend visa waivers for Israelis to the UAE until July went into effect Monday. Britain’s decision to mandate a 10-day quarantine for those returning from Dubai threatens to destroy the remains of the tourism industry.
“Britons are such an important part of tourists and investors in Dubai,” said David Tarsh, spokesman for ForwardKeys, a company that analyzes travel data. “Cutting that pipeline … is a complete disaster for the city.”
UK Transport Minister Grant Shapps tweeted that the government’s decision was prompted by the latest UAE virus data. However, other than daily infections, data is sparse. The UAE does not disclose information about disease clusters or hospital admissions.
During an aggressive testing campaign, the country reported more than 256,000 cases and 751 deaths.
On Tuesday, dozens of cars stopped at a drive-in coronavirus clinic in the desert edge of Dubai awaiting tests. At the American Hospital in Dubai, where a makeshift tent is conducting virus tests in a parking lot, a security guard said the waiting times were more than two hours. At least 80 people queued as the call to midday prayer rang over us.
Hours after The Associated Press published this story, the Sheikh’s government-led Dubai Media Office issued a statement saying the emirate “continues to maintain the highest level of protection against the pandemic and compliance with preventive measures.”
Analysts speculate that the UAE’s unique demographics – 90% expatriates, mostly healthy, young workers – have prevented well-staffed hospitals from being overwhelmed and keep the death rate low, at 0.3%.
But that hasn’t reassured Abu Dhabi, Dubai’s more conservative neighbor and the country’s capital. Without explanation, Abu Dhabi has kept the border closed with freewheeling Dubai, despite promises to reopen by Christmas. Anyone crossing Abu Dhabi must submit a negative coronavirus test.
Relations between heavy Dubai and oil-rich Abu Dhabi can become tense. During the 2009 financial crisis, Abu Dhabi had to save Dubai with a $ 20 billion bailout plan. This time, it is unclear whether Dubai can count on another cash infusion given the crash in global oil prices.
Even before the pandemic, Dubai’s economy was headed for another downturn thanks to a shaky real estate market, which has fallen in value by 30% since its peaks in 2014. The emirate and its web of government-affiliated entities represent billions of dollars in debt payments. The government has already stepped in to help airline Emirates, which received $ 2 billion in aid last year. Other indebted companies that have invested in hospitality and tourism may need help, especially with events like the World’s Fair that has been delayed for a year. S&P Global, a rating agency, estimates Dubai’s indebtedness at about 148% of its gross domestic product when state-bound industries are included.
Under pressure, authorities have used vaccines as the only way to contain the outbreak. On the front pages of state-linked newspapers are stories touting the mass vaccination urge, which officials claim are the second fastest in the world after Israel, with 19 doses divided among every 100 people as of Tuesday.
The UAE is offering the Chinese coronavirus vaccine Sinopharm to everyone, even though its announcement on the effectiveness of the shot lacks data and details. Demand for the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine in Dubai has been overwhelmed by demand, with hotline operators saying thousands of high-risk residents remain on a waiting list.
With the country shattering its infection record for seven consecutive days, Dubai’s ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum stated that widespread vaccination, not movement restrictions, “would accelerate our country’s full recovery.”
But even if Dubai achieves its goal of inoculating 70% of the population by the end of 2021, Moody’s Investors Service expects the UAE economy to take three years to return.
“I don’t think Dubai’s days are numbered,” said Page, the Carnegie scholar. “But if the city were more modest and more responsible, it would be a more sustainable place.”
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Associated Press writer Jon Gambrell in Dubai contributed to this report.