Cooperation between China and Russia could be Biden’s greatest challenge

President Joe Biden faces a nightmare scenario with global ramifications: intensified Sino-Russian strategic cooperation aimed at undermining US influence and turning Biden’s efforts to rally Democratic allies upside down.

It is the most important and underappreciated test of Biden’s leadership yet: it could be the defining challenge of his presidency.

Last week, Russia and China simultaneously escalated their separate military activities and threats to the sovereignty of Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively – countries whose vibrant independence is an insult to Moscow and Beijing but is at the heart of the interests of the US and allies in their regions .

Even if the actions of Moscow and Beijing do not result in a military invasion of either country, and most experts still believe this is unlikely, the magnitude and intensity of the military actions require immediate attention. US and Allied officials dare not discount the certainty that Russia and China share information or the growing likelihood that they will coordinate more and more actions and strategies.

“Which [Russian] the build-up has reached the point where it could provide the basis for a limited military incursion, “William J. Burns, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, told the US Senate Intelligence Committee this week. Allies should take it very seriously.”

On China, the annual US intelligence community threat assessment said, “China is seeking to exploit its doubts about US involvement in the region, undermine Taiwan’s democracy and expand Beijing’s influence.” Lost in media coverage of the report was a warning about “Russia’s growing strategic partnership with China – to achieve its goals.”

Independently, China’s and Russia’s challenges would be a handful for any US president. Should China and Russia act more coherently and coherently, and you have a more consistent story than the plot of any Tom Clancy novel. It’s a scenario for which the US and its allies have no strategy or even a common understanding.

For anyone doubting Sino-Russian ambitions, one of my favorite places to read Chinese tea leaves is the Global Times, often a mouthpiece for Beijing leadership. In an editorial late last month, under the headline “China-Russia Ties Deepening As US and Allies Pass Out,” it wrote: “The most influential bilateral relationship in Eurasia is China-Russia’s comprehensive strategic coordination partnership for a new era. “

In a barely veiled warning to Japan and South Korea, it wrote, “China and Russia understand the weight of their ties … To be fair, no country in the region can stand alone against China or Russia, let stand fighting the powers. at the same time. It would be disastrous for any country that tends to confront China and Russia by forging an alliance with the US. “

Asked last October about the possibility of a formal military alliance with China, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said, “Theoretically it is quite possible.”

In any case, there is nothing theoretical about the military escalations around Ukraine and Taiwan.

Over the past week, Russia has gathered the largest concentration of troops along the Ukrainian border since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Ukrainian government officials say Russian President Vladimir Putin has brought more than 40,000 troops to Ukraine’s eastern border for ‘combat exercises’ across a period of two weeks.

At the same time, China has ramped up its military overflights in Taiwan’s air defense zone to unprecedented levels, with more than 250 missions near the island this year. Last Monday, the Chinese military sent 25 fighter jets to Taiwan, a record high since Taiwan started to release figures last year.

The Biden government responded to Putin this week with the root of a summit and stick with new sanctions. On Tuesday, Biden called Putin, indicating that he has no intention of escalating tensions with the leader he agreed was a “murderer” only a month ago.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stood next to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who condemned the Russian military build-up. The strongest rebuke from the Biden administration came on Thursday when it announced new economic sanctions against 38 Russian entities accused of electoral interference and cyber-attacks, ousted ten diplomats and introduced measures banning US financial institutions from trading newly issued Russian government debt and bonds.

China’s raids over Taiwan came shortly after the State Department issued guidelines relaxing the rules for U.S. government officials dealing with Taiwan. Blinken has said the government is concerned about China’s “increasingly aggressive actions” and is committed to ensuring that Taiwan “can defend itself”. The United States further showed its support for Taiwan on Wednesday by sending an unofficial delegation made up of a former US senator and two former US secretaries of state to Taiwan.

This major power drama couldn’t get any worse for the Biden administration, whose officials won’t be clocking their 100 days in office until April 30. Still, that’s probably the point for Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as they strive to gain advantage before Biden can secure a permanent position through policy evaluations and by occupying key leadership positions.

These real-world events also complicate the Biden administration’s carefully crafted plans to follow its actions methodically, reasonably arguing that American renewal is a prerequisite for effective global leadership.

Biden’s goal is to suppress Covid-19 by accelerating vaccine distribution, boost economic momentum and competitiveness by increasing $ 4 trillion in stimulus and infrastructure spending, and to restore relationships with key allies, a goal that was reflected in Biden’s meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Suga this week. Yoshihide.

The Biden administration is also facing a number of other foreign policy challenges at the same time, ranging from the president’s announcement this week that he would withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September 11, and attempts to resume nuclear talks with Iran. despite Sunday’s attack on Tehran’s nuclear fortification in Natanz. facility.

That’s a lot for any new president. However, how skillfully Biden tackles the combined, growing challenge of Russia and China will determine our time.

Frederick Kempe is a best-selling author, award-winning journalist, and president and CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of the United States’ most influential think tanks on global affairs. He spent more than 25 years at The Wall Street Journal as a foreign correspondent, assistant editor and as the longest-serving editor of the European edition of the newspaper. His latest book – “Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev and the Most Dangerous Place on Earth” – was a New York Times bestseller and has been published in more than a dozen languages. Follow him on Twitter @FredKempe and subscribe to Inflection Points here, his take a look at the top stories and trends from the past week every Saturday.

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