But despite the strict restrictions, the number of cases is not falling as quickly as experts had hoped. The number of deaths continues to rise, and public health experts and the government are beginning to warn people that the country will be in this battle in the long run.
The new variant, known as B.1.1.7, has wreaked havoc in the UK, increasing the number of cases by the end of 2020, despite a national lockdown being introduced. Data showing an increase in cases in younger people suggests that this was largely because schools remained open, allowing the variant to spread rapidly.
According to Public Health England, the new strain first emerged in September. At the end of November, scientists began to raise concerns about the rising number of infections in Kent in the southeast. The region was an anomaly because while cases generally occurred across the country due to national restrictions, they did not occur in Kent.
This forced the country into a much stricter lockdown starting Jan. 5, with people instructed to stay at home, not mixing households – inside and out – and closing everything but essential shops, including most schools.
For many experts, the decision came too late. “It’s amazing that we seem to be making the same mistakes over and over again – with increasing loss of life,” Dr. Julian Tang, a clinical virologist at the University of Leicester, noted in comments to the UK’s Science Media Center.
But does the tougher strategy work? The evidence is mixed.
Deadliest period
England reported nearly 70,000 new infections on January 4, the day before the new lockdown was announced. In terms of newly reported cases, the worst 10 days of the entire pandemic occurred between December 29 and January 11, with an average of more than 55,000 new cases per day.
Deaths quickly followed: of the 11 deadliest days of the pandemic, 10 occurred between January 9 and 18. The country reported more than 1,000 deaths every day, something that has only happened once before.
A few days after the new restrictions took effect, the number of new cases began to gradually decline – and has continued to do so ever since.
The seven-day moving average of new daily cases, a measure that smoothes out anomalies like lower tests on the weekends, dropped from the high of above 60,000 on January 1 to about 40,000 in recent days. However, it will likely take a while for the impact to be felt in hospitals.
“We know there is a delay between reporting new cases and any subsequent deaths,” Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton, told CNN in an email. “For example, a few percent of newly diagnosed today could end up in the hospital in about 7-14 days, and then about 1% of today’s cases will die in about 21-28 days,” he added.
The number of people hospitalized remains at an all-time high, with 38,000 people in hospitals.
But while the latest figures may offer glimpses of hope, other studies, including one by researchers at Imperial College London, paint a contrasting picture.
Unlike the official case numbers, which are based on the number of people being tested and thus may not include those who are asymptomatic or have not yet developed symptoms, the REACT-1 study tracks current coronavirus infections in the community and tested this time more than 140,000 randomly selected people.
Steven Riley, the study’s author and a professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College, told CNN in an email that the numbers don’t show the kind of substantial drop that would be expected if the lockdown is strong enough to hold it back. number of reproductions. – the value indicates how much the virus is spreading: a reproduction rate of more than 1 means that the epidemic is growing. On Friday, the government said the number was between 0.8 and 1, though it warned it varied across the country.
The study tested samples collected between January 6 and 15 and compared them with mobility data based on the GPS locations of individuals using Facebook’s mobile phone app. The data shows a decrease in mobility in late December, followed by an increase in early January when people return to work, which the authors say may explain the higher number of people becoming infected in early January.
Riley said that while the study didn’t show a major drop in infections, it wouldn’t be fair to say the lockdown failed altogether. “Our main point is that we haven’t seen a sharp drop, that’s what we really need to see.”
The authors further noted in the paper that, “until the prevalence in the community is significantly reduced, health services will remain under extreme pressure and the cumulative number of lives lost during this pandemic will continue to increase rapidly.”
Commenting on the numbers, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the numbers show that the more contagious species was “spreading very quickly indeed.”
“I think it’s too early to say when we can lift some of the restrictions,” Johnson said.
Vallance said the early data suggests that while about 10 out of 1,000 infected males in their 60s would die from the old variant, this could increase to about 13 or 14 with the new species.
The government is also under pressure to compensate people who have to isolate themselves. A government-backed study published in September found that only 18% of people adhered to self-isolation rules and suggested that financial compensation could increase that number.
Full impact takes a while
As the numbers are debated and continue to change, health experts and politicians are asking the public for patience.
The full impact of the lockdown won’t be felt for a while, as it will take a long time – and a lot more staying home – to get the latest wave fully under control, they think.
Head’s team estimates that the number of people who succumb to the disease is likely to remain high and not start to decline until next month. And although hospital admissions are declining, the number of patients in hospital remains at a record level. As long as the number of people discharged does not exceed the number of people admitted, hospitals run the risk of running out of bed.
“The daily trend shows that the lockdown is having an effect on those new daily cases,” said Head. “However, it is important to remember that the impact on hospital admissions will only really be visible from trends starting around the last week of January, and that the number of deaths should decline in February.”
For the time being, this all means that there will be strict restrictions for some time to come.
Top government officials have said repeatedly that it is far too early to speculate about loosening the lockdown measures that will now be in effect until March, and possibly into the summer.
“For example, it could very well mean that a possible lockdown must remain longer than would be the case with the old variant,” says Head.