The Clemson Tigers ended one of college basketball’s most historic streaks last season by taking down the North Carolina Tar Heels at Chapel Hill for the first time. UNC is better in 2020-21, but so is Clemson, who are making their last ACC foray as a top-20 team. Our experts took a look at that game and other top matches of the weekend, while also shedding light on the current state of the race for the 2021 Wooden Award and some of the most important, recent departures on college hoops.
(Editor’s note: Clemson in North Carolina has been postponed Friday)
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It took 60 games and 93 years for Clemson to win at Chapel Hill, and there seems to be a fair chance the 19th-ranked Tigers will make it two straight games on Saturday (7:00 PM ET, ESPN). How do you think this Tar Heels team will be positioned in March? Give fans reason to think this may still be a relevant North Carolina team. (Editor’s note: Clemson in North Carolina was postponed Friday).
Myron Medcalf, senior college basketball writer: I think this squad is still making its way to an 8 or 9 seed, but I don’t know if it will continue. These Tar Heels, who pack a lot of offensive rebounds but can’t do much with those second chance chances because they can’t shoot, look vulnerable to a first round upset in this crazy year.
With Caleb Love on the floor, they’ve generated just 92 points per 100 assets and dedicated sales on nearly one-fifth of their assets, per hooplens.com. If they can’t figure out the point guard spot, they’ll have more trouble in the coming months. Relevance? They still have a bunch of former five-star recruits and a top 20 defensive unit. If the offensive efficiency improves, they can win matches in March. Could be.
Jeff Borzellocollege basketball insider: As I entered the season, my main concern about the Tar Heels was their wing scores and whether they could find consistent perimeter shots. I assumed Garrison Brooks and Armando Bacot would carry most of the load inside, I loved Day’Ron Sharpe in high school, and I expected Love to become an elite point guard pretty soon. The last part hasn’t happened yet, and that’s been a huge problem.
Carolina is struggling with sales and struggling to shoot 3, and I’m not sure any of these changes will happen anytime soon. That said, I don’t think the top of the ACC is very good, so they should finish in the top six or seven of the league and make it to the NCAA tournament as a 9-10 seed. This team has defended better than previous Carolina iterations, the internal group is still elite, and I’m still hoping for love.
John Gasawaycollege basketball writer: This can still be a relevant UNC team as the Tar Heels do two things very well. North Carolina plays defense and crashes the attack glass. As for shooting, did I mention that North Carolina plays the defense and crashes the attack glass? These two traits may prove to be enough to complete two or three games above .500 in ACC play and earn, say, a No. 9 seed in the tournament. If nothing else, the Heels can always miss a shot (this does happen from time to time) and count on Brooks, Bacot or Sharpe to make it.
Joe Lunardi, ESPN bracketologist: What the Tar Heels really need is for Cole Anthony to be a year younger. Last season’s former star would be quite a missing piece from this year’s skewed roster. In the real world, however, the North Carolina perimeter has a long way to go to balance its prolific frontcourt. UNC’s size is still a significant advantage, but the rest of the squad would fall seriously short against the best teams in the country. Fortunately, none of the very best teams seem to play in the ACC, so the Heels should sneak into the tournament. However, they will not wear white, and the first four is not excluded.
The waiting list for the Wooden Award for 25 players was announced on Wednesday evening. What would the top 3 of your wooden ballot look like now?
Medcalf: Let’s be honest. Iowa’s Luka Garza occupies all three of those spots, right? I think the field is fighting for second place. If I had told you before the season that Garza, who finished second behind Obi Toppin in last year’s race, would return as a 6-foot-11 big man shooting 49% of the three-point line, 66% from the inside arc and 74% of the charity mark, all for the best offensive team in America at KenPom, you might not have believed me. But that’s what happened. This is his award.
For # 2, I choose Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert. During the 2013-14 season, Doug McDermott averaged 26.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, while making 45% of his 3-point tries. Kispert averages 21.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 2.2 APG for America’s No. 1 team, while making 51% of his 3-point tries despite playing alongside a point guard, Jalen Suggs, who has the could be number 1 choice. this year’s NBA draft. No. 3 would be Illinois’ Ayo Dosunmu (23.0 PPG).
Gasaway: Garza, Jared Butler from Baylor and Hunter Dickinson from Michigan. To be clear, Dickinson was not included in midseason 25, and he won’t actually get within a mile of the Wooden Award. He’s a freshman who wasn’t highly hyped for the season, so he won’t be able to make up for that ground against (worthy!) Garza and Butler. But everyone is doing me a favor, comparing the young man’s 2-point accuracy and possession to what we saw from a certain (rightly!) Celebrated freshman at Duke two years ago. It’s an illuminating comparison.
Lunardi: Garza is the obvious number 1 choice, and that’s unlikely to change. Then I go with the best players from the two best teams, Drew Timme from Gonzaga and Jared Butler from Baylor. Actually, if pressed, Butler and Ayo Dosunmu would be in third place. And, arbitrarily, how confusing would it be if Butler had a star named Jared Baylor?
Borzello: I think Garza is the obvious choice at number 1 right now. He came into the season as the big favorite to win the Wooden Award, and he hasn’t disappointed. His “bad” games are still 18 and 6, 22 and 9, 16 and 14. Those numbers on their own might be good enough to put a player on an All-America team. I would go with Dosunmu at number 2, although I think there is quite a big gap between Garza and Dosunmu. Dosunmu has scored at least 30 points three times, was very good in late-game situations, and improved his loot shots significantly.
I love Gasaway’s Hunter Dickinson shout-out, and Jared Butler would be on my mid-season All-American team, but I’m going with a pick of Gonzaga players for my number 3. The first few weeks of the season, the would have been Suggs. Then Timme would have been the choice. But right now, Kispert is crazy. He has scored at least 25 points in three of his past four games, shooting 75.8% of 2 and 50.8% of 3.
Four players who were on the original Wooden Watch list – Keyontae Johnson (Florida), Caleb Mills (Houston), Chris Smith (UCLA) and Oscar Tshiebwe (West Virginia) – will no longer play this season. Which of their teams can best withstand that absence and make some noise in March, and which ones are the biggest problem?
Borzello: I’m going with Houston. I think the Cougars are clearly the class of the AAC, with or without Mills, and that probably means they have to enter the NCAA tournament in the best shape in terms of seeding. Kelvin Sampson is also charged on the perimeter. Quentin Grimes has the kind of season we all expected from high school a few years ago, Marcus Sasser is great and DeJon Jarreau is a jack of all trades. Freshman Tramon Mark has had his moments too.
I actually think all four teams should survive the absence and make it to the NCAA tournament, but Florida may be in the most trouble. Keyontae Johnson was the top player of the four absences mentioned above, and while transfers Anthony Duruji (Louisiana Tech) and Colin Castleton (Michigan) have played well in recent games, the Gators are what most worry me.
Medcalf: I also think Houston will be okay. Mills’ role was changing for an excellent Cougars squad that didn’t need him the minutes he played a year ago. We watched Justin Gorham (12.5 PPG in the past two games without Mills) do more on offense to help his team beat SMU and Wichita State in back-to-back games. Sampson has depth with this group.
I too think Florida got the biggest hit on this list. Johnson was trending as a potential first-round pick when he collapsed against the state of Florida during the scariest incident of the year. Plus, the SEC looks like a more complicated race than it looked like it was entering the season.
Gasaway: Houston certainly seems to be doing fine without Mills. The Cougars are a basket away from being undefeated, and as it is now, we’ll likely see this team close out the regular season with an exceptionally small number in the loss column. Mills was the recommended scorer last year, but he wasn’t the last word in efficiency. In his absence, Grimes skilfully fulfilled that role, and UH overwhelms American opponents with offensive boards and trips to the line.
Lunardi: The shocking answer is Houston, for all the reasons outlined above. But West Virginia’s epic Oklahoma State comeback is still top of mind, and Bob Huggins seems more than happy to ride it out with Derek Culver as the lone wolf up front. I think the Mountaineers will be fine and unfortunately the biggest loss will turn out to be Keyontae Johnson from Florida.
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