Climate Change: Coal is driving economic recovery from Covid crisis, IEA says

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In a new report, the International Energy Agency estimates that carbon emissions from energy consumption are on track to increase by 1.5 billion tons by 2021, as heavy coal consumption in Asia, and China in particular, outweighs the rapid growth of renewable sources. That would be the second largest annual increase in energy-related emissions in history.

“This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the Covid crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate,” said Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement. “Unless governments around the world act quickly to cut emissions, we will likely face an even worse situation in 2022.”

The Paris-based group is ringing the alarm for 40 world leaders to gather later this week for a two-day virtual summit on the climate crisis convened by President Joe Biden. Birol called it a “critical time to commit to clear and immediate action.”

The UK will announce a steeper target to cut carbon emissions ahead of the summit, a government source confirmed to CNN Business on Tuesday. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will pledge to cut UK emissions by 78% from 1990 levels by 2035, the Financial Times reported Monday.

When countries around the world closed last year and people were instructed to stay at home to limit Covid-19 infections, emissions dropped dramatically.

But any climate benefit from the pandemic appears to be short-lived. The IEA estimates that global energy demand will increase by 4.6% in 2021 and exceed 2019 levels, fueled by rising energy consumption in emerging economies and emerging markets.

Energy-related emissions are expected to end the year just below 2019 levels, reversing 80% of the 2020 decline.

A resurgence in coal use is of particular concern as demand is expected to approach its 2014 peak this year.

China is expected to account for 50% of global coal demand growth. Usage in the United States and Europe is also on the rise, but is expected to remain “well below pre-crisis levels”.

Earlier this week, António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, called on developed countries to phase out the use of coal by 2030 and stop the construction of new coal-fired power plants.

Electricity demand is expected to experience the fastest growth in more than a decade.

But there is good news: More than half of the increase in global electricity supply by 2021 will come from renewable sources, driven in part by the growing production of solar and wind energy from China.

The IEA estimates are subject to “great uncertainty” given the lack of clarity about the pathway of Covid-19 infections and vaccinations. For example, if travel recovers faster than expected, energy demand will increase even further.

– Luke McGee and Sarah Dean contributed to this article.

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