China’s exports rose more slowly than expected in March, even as global demand remained strong, while imports surged on the back of rising commodity prices.
Exports rose 30.6% in dollars in March from a year earlier, customs data showed Tuesday, lower than the median forecast of 38% in a Bloomberg poll of economists. Imports rose 38.1%, leaving a trade surplus of $ 13.8 billion for the month, well below the projected $ 52 billion.
Imports Hit Record
Exports are also recovering, but not so strongly
Source: China General Administration of Customrs
While growth slowed after record gains in February, the data indicates export momentum remained strong in March as vaccine rollouts and a recovery in global growth helped fuel demand.
“Export outperformance remains a theme in China’s recovery,” said Peiqian Liu, an economist at Natwest Markets in an interview on Bloomberg TV, adding that this was due to “a combination of global pick-up in demand and the role of China in filling the global market. Gaps in the supply chain. “
Peiqian Liu, economist at Natwest Markets, discusses what the latest figures say about the health of the world’s second-largest economy and its outlook.
Markets: Asia. (Source: Bloomberg)
The numbers are also skewed by the compared to early 2020, when the pandemic destroyed much of the world’s second largest economy. Prime Minister Li Keqiang told experts and companies over the weekend look beyond the ‘base effect’ and use other data and methods to assess the economic situation.
The World Trade Organization predicts that world trade with 8% this year, the biggest gain since 2010, after falling 5.3% in 2020. While China’s Ministry of Commerce is not making any predictions about the outlook for foreign trade, the Ministry of Commerce has said it would push for stable development of foreign trade this year.
Xing Zhaopeng, a senior China strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Shanghai, said the increase in imports was due to higher volumes and prices of raw materials.
“Looking ahead, while rising commodity prices could increase import costs in the short term, the recovery in external demand could offset some of the impact,” he said.
Other details
- In yuan expressed, exports were up 38.7% in the first quarter to 4.61 trillion yuan ($ 704 billion), while imports were up 19.3% to 3.86 trillion yuan, leaving a surplus of 759.3 billion yuan remained.
- Exports to the US were up 53.3% in March from a year earlier, resulting in a trade surplus of $ 21.37 billion.
- For a breakdown of imports by country, Click here.
– Assisted by James Mayger, Lin Zhu, Yinan Zhao and Yujing Liu
Updates with comments from economists.