On March 27, 2021, Chinese ships moored at Whitsun Reef.
Source: National Task Force-West Philippine Sea via AP
Source: National Task Force-West Philippine Sea via AP
Based on the official opinion from Beijing, the Philippines has no reason to be concerned about Chinese fishing boats docking along a disputed reef in the South China Sea.
The ships – hundreds at first – were simply “sheltering from the wind” and the Philippines should look at the situation in a “rational light, ”said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying on March 22 when the news first broke.
Two weeks later, more than 40 boats are still on Whitsun Reef and the statements are getting shorter. The Philippine Foreign Office on Monday warned China would conduct diplomatic protests daily as long as the “maritime militia” remains in place, in the same language as the US to describe the fleet stationed in an area known as Julian Felipe Reef in the Philippines and Niu’e Jiao in the Philippines. China.
“If your goal is to take over a sea area and atoll without fighting for it, this is a brilliant if unfair tactic,” said Carl Schuster, a former Operations Director at US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center. “Only professional mariners know it’s a lie – no one ‘protects’ their ships weeks before a storm in a storm zone. If it is truly a commercial craft, it costs hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars a day to sit idle together. “
Overall, it is increasingly appearing that Beijing is looking into whether President Joe Biden will take any action after pledging to work with allies in the region to deter Chinese assertiveness. The Philippine Foreign Minister Teodoro Locsin has accused the Obama administration for not stopping China during a similar situation incident in 2012 on the Scarborough Shoal, a precursor to President Xi Jinping’s move to build military installations in the South China Sea.
“It’s a test of what the government is willing to do,” said Schuster, who is now an adjunct faculty member of Hawaii Pacific University’s diplomacy and military science program. The next test will determine how the US reacts. At this point, everything we’ve done is more rhetorical than substantive. “
The US said last month that it supports the Philippines while accusing China of using a “maritime militia to intimidate, provoke and threaten other nations.” Asked about Chinese relations at a press conference last month, Biden said his government would hold “China responsible for following the rules” in the South China Sea and elsewhere.
A big problem is how to calibrate the response. China’s use of commercial fishing boats amounts to a “gray zone” tactic that allows Beijing to deny that anything is wrong. Sending an aircraft carrier or other warships near the reef threatens to look like an overreaction that would make the US look like the aggressor.
On the other hand, doing nothing can look weak. In recent years, the US has stepped up challenges to Chinese sovereignty in its waters, increasing the frequency of so-called freedom of navigation around disputed territory. The Biden administration also confirmed that the US-Philippine Defense Treaty covers all attacks in the South China Sea, a clarification under President Donald Trump that came after decades of official ambiguity.
Another major complication for Biden is Filipino leader Rodrigo Duterte, who has undermined the alliance while maintaining closer ties with Beijing.
“While President Duterte is in power, there will be very limited opportunities for the Navy,” said Rommel Ong, a retired rear admiral in the Philippine Navy who is now a professor at Ateneo de Manila University’s School of Government. “Deprived of any coherent strategy, it is limited to filing diplomatic protests and statements against China via social media.”
Monday’s Philippine statement used one of the strongest language to date, saying a 2016 international arbitration ruling made it clear that China has no vested rights to fish in the area, which is within the Southeast Asian Exclusive Economic Zone. land. It also denounced the Chinese embassy for criticizing Defense Minister Delfin Lorenzana, who said the weather is fine and the boats have no reason to stay. “I’m not kidding,” he said over the weekend.
‘Irrational Emotions’
Duterte’s government responded to an April 3 statement by China that the waters had “for years been a traditional fishing ground for Chinese fishermen” and reiterated that it was “perfectly normal” for the ships to “take shelter by the reef during rough sea conditions.” ” China has denied that the boats constitute a maritime militia and said it hoped that Philippine officials would “avoid unprofessional comments that could further stir irrational emotions.”
Duterte has personally remained silent so far, although his spokesperson Harry Roque said his view of the situation has not changed.
“The president’s position is that we will stand for our rights, but this is no reason to resort to violence,” Roque said. “He is confident that thanks to our close friendship with China, we will be able to resolve this.”
Credibility damaged
One factor holding Duterte from taking a tougher stance may be the need to secure vaccines: Metro Manila shut down again last week amid the country’s worst coronavirus outbreak. The Philippines is currently getting most vaccines from China’s Sinovac Biotech Ltd., with Duterte attending a ceremony on March 29 in which Chinese ambassador Huang Zilian said the jabs were evidence of ‘closer cooperation in the new era’.
The US is “not so naive” this time, after its failed 2012 attempt to negotiate a mutual pullout on the Scarborough Shoal “caused massive damage to US credibility in Southeast Asia,” said Shahriman Lockman, a senior analyst at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia.
“The Americans are wary of wading in here and don’t know if they will ultimately be blamed for the escalation of the situation, which is a real possibility with the erratic leadership in Manila,” he said. “A superficial response – that’s all the Philippines has at its disposal.”