The worst of the current wave of coronavirus infections appears to be behind us, with a seven-day moving average of new cases in nearly every part of the country. Nationally, that average peaked on January 8 with nearly 260,000 new cases; the figure for Feb. 3, 136,442, represents a 47 percent drop from that peak.
In some parts of the country, including the Upper Midwest, the number of new cases is higher than others. Four states in the region – Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Iowa – saw the average daily number of cases drop by 80 percent or more.
The places with the strongest declines tend to be small counties where the total number of cases is relatively small, leading to wild swings in the data. Limiting the data to about 600 counties that had at least 100 daily cases at their recent peak shows that the number of cases has dropped by 60 percent on average.
Most of the areas on this map that show smaller declines experienced their winter peaks later, meaning they haven’t had much time to come down. For example, the Midwest peaked in mid-November, while the East Coast peaked in mid-January.
The current decline remains most pronounced in the Midwest. In Hennepin County, home of Minneapolis, daily cases fell from 1,200 to about 200. Wayne County, home of Detroit, saw a similar decline, from 1,200 to 220.
While cases in the United States are generally on a downward trend, some parts of the country are still reporting new cases at a faster rate than during the worst spike they experienced last year. This map compares current rates with peaks from the past, defined here as the highest daily average before October 1. For some states that saw a rise early in the pandemic when widespread testing was not yet available, these early peaks may be underestimated.
Most of the places on the map above saw a relatively small increase in the number of cases reported during the first wave of the pandemic early last year. Although it is now on a downward trajectory, the current number of new cases is higher than anything they have experienced during the first six months of the coronavirus crisis.
Maine, for example, had a relatively low rate of cases until November, when the number of cases started to rise before peaking in late January at nearly 12 times the level of the state’s peak last year. Still, the current daily rate in Maine is tame compared to some other parts of the country – such as Texas, which is three times that in Maine, adjusted for population.
In New York State, areas outside of New York City weren’t hit as hard as the city in the spring last year, but this winter saw a brutal second wave. Hawaii is the only state in the country where the first wave was more severe than the second wave in terms of reported cases.
US mean daily cases
Calif.
16,269
-64%
+ 62%
It remains to be seen whether the new variants of the coronavirus circulating in different parts of the country will cause another rise in the number of cases. The more contagious variant first identified in the UK has now been discovered in more than half of the states. On the other hand, as more people are vaccinated, transmission speeds can drop, preventing an increase. While both vaccines currently approved in the United States require two injections, studies show that even one dose provides strong protection against the virus.