Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson (27) breaks away for a touchdown as Arizona Cardinals chases cornerback Byron Murphy (33) during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday December 6, 2020, in Glendale, Arizona. (AP Photo / Rick Scuteri)
Win and they participate.
The Arizona Cardinals dug a hole on Saturday by losing to the San Francisco 49ers and putting their hopes for the playoffs in the hands of others. But after matches on Sunday it is again a simple formula.
All they have to do to make it to the NFL playoffs is win against the Los Angeles Rams next Sunday to jump the 9-6 division rival.
A win for Arizona (8-7) would tie both teams with 9-7 records to end the regular season. By splitting their head-to-head matches, the Cardinals will own the tiebreaker with a better NFC West division record.
Arizona would be the sixth seed if it wins and the Chicago Bears fall to the Green Bay Packers in week 17. The Cardinals would be the seventh seed if they win and the Bears will win, too, as Chicago has a tiebreaker against Arizona.
What are the odds that the Cardinals will beat the Rams to make it to the playoffs?
Here are the latest projections from ESPN, FiveThirtyEight, and Las Vegas oddsmakers after Rams quarterback Jared Goff was ruled out for his thumb injury last week.
It is expected that those numbers can be adjusted again as soon as there is more clarity about the status of Cardinal quarterback Kyler Murray, who suffers from a lower leg injury.
ESPN
On Monday morning, Arizona had a 40.7% chance of beating the Rams, according to the Football Power Index (FPI).
In fact, those odds from Tuesday morning have dropped to 37.4% after the Monday Night Football game between the Bills and Patriots – we’re guessing because a 38-9 win for Buffalo was the formula to judge Arizona’s loss to New England harder.
FPI does take into account the absences of quarterbacks. Goff’s backup, John Wolford, only has last season’s preseason games with limited action, and considering how badly Goff has been playing lately, well, maybe that’s also feeding into the diminishing Cardinals odds.
FiveThirtyEight
Compared to ESPN, the website was already more in favor of the Cardinals’ chances of winning along the way, giving them a 49% chance of beating the Rams from Monday.
On Tuesday, Arizona got a 6% rise to make it a light favorite with a 55% chance of making it to the postseason after a win.
Opportunities
Las Vegas’ rule at stake opened in favor of Los Angeles by -4 to -5 and had yet to be updated after Goff was ruled out by the Rams.
Murray’s availability is likely to affect the final odds going into the game.
