Running for president has already cost Joe Biden at least one friend. In the Obama era, Biden spent tens of hours with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping. Once they ate noodles at a Beijing restaurant with Biden’s granddaughter, and Xi once called Biden an “old friend.” In May 2019, Biden insisted that the Chinese communist leaders are “not bad people.”
But a lot can change in a few years. In an effort to show his harshness towards China, Biden began to describe Xi as “a criminal who actually has a million Uyghurs. . . concentration camps. ”As president, Biden says he will“ bring together a united front of friends and partners to challenge China’s offensive behavior ”.
But is the president-elect in reality still too soft on Beijing to confront Xi? Could he prove critics wrong?
There is no shortage of possible “friends and partners”. China’s neighbors, such as Taiwan, Japan, and India, are alarmed by Beijing’s growing military assertiveness. And in countries like Myanmar, where China is building roads, pipelines and power plants, there is popular opposition to what the locals see as a breach of national sovereignty.
Chinese diplomacy is also causing hackles. Take Australia, where Beijing has invested money in influencing the country’s elites through everything from trade deals to think tanks. In recent years, the mood has suddenly changed: Australia has tightened security rules on foreign investment and increased defense spending in the Indo-Pacific.
When the Australian government called for an international investigation into the origins of the new coronavirus, China’s Foreign Ministry described it as ‘shocking’ as Australia should be ‘a good friend’.
Britain has undergone a similarly rapid transformation. Five years ago, London was Europe’s leading advocate for cooperation with Beijing. But last year, Boris Johnson’s government put in place new barriers to Chinese investment, citing safety concerns.
At the United Nations, Xi had meanwhile managed to quell criticism – until last October, when 39 countries joined a declaration against Beijing’s rights violations. China’s track record has always been dire, but in the past year it has become untouchable: don’t forget the photos of millions of Hong Kong citizens protesting – followed by the massive arrests of opposition members. Nor the unspeakable images of Uyghur Muslims being loaded onto trains, blindfolded and handcuffed.
And that’s before the COVID-19 coverups. Even in relatively China-friendly regions, such as Latin America, there is public anger at Xi’s party for its role in the pandemic. A Pew poll found that “unfavorable opinion” of China “has skyrocketed over the past year,” from Canada via the Netherlands to South Korea.
In theory, Biden should be able to build his ‘united front’. In practice it will be more difficult. Last month, the European Union ignored warnings from US officials, including a senior Biden adviser, and signed a trade deal with China. (Xi gleefully described it as a deal between “ the two leading powers in the world. ”) EU leaders may view China as a dangerous rival, but in the end they needed the business opportunity, even if it means alienating Washington and moving away from it. with Xi. atrocities.
When it comes to China’s trade practices, Biden can find his “friends and partners” evaporating. He could have more success just by enforcing Trump’s trade deal. Outgoing sales representative, Robert Lighthizer, argues America is in a strong position to “hold out [China’s] feet to the fire ”on its promises of fair practices and purchasing obligations.
Biden’s ‘united front’ will be more feasible on security, where he is expected to quietly strengthen existing alliances such as ‘the Quad’, an informal partnership with India, Japan and Australia, and the ‘Five Eyes’ network for the sharing information. .
But it is on human rights that there is clearly an opening for international cooperation. China has pledged to respect Hong Kong’s autonomy. Biden could lead the pressure to keep that promise – perhaps through coordinated international sanctions against Chinese officials.
He could also urge Congress to pass laws against supply chains associated with the Uyghur internment camps. And since Beijing will veto any attempt by international courts to investigate the camps, Biden can authorize US courts to rule.
That would be a drastic step. But if the president-elect really believes what he says – that his former friend is overseeing a “genocide” – it’s hard to see how he could do anything less.
Dan Hitchens writes from London. Twitter: @DDHitchens