That’s the projection from the University of Liverpool, in England, according to epidemiologist physician Alfonso Rosales. It would go from 278 to nearly 600 new infections per day
Epidemiologists at the University of Liverpool, England, project a bleak outlook for El Salvador in the first months of 2021.
Alfonso Rosales, physician and consultant in epidemiology, said that according to studies by this entity, “a doubling of the number of cases is projected in El Salvador, which we will see in 135 days. In four and a half months (April) we will double the number of open cases we have (276 on December 29). The pressure this will put on the health system will be far greater than what we experienced during the previous peak ”that the country suffered between the months of June and July.
Rosales, who appeared as a guest on Channel 33 Wednesday morning with infectologist Iván Solano Leiva, also explained that El Salvador in Central America is experiencing a 2% acceleration of new infections from Sars-Cov-2 per week. , while other countries in the area are slowing down: Guatemala at -18%, Honduras -21% and Costa Rica -7%. Very seriously what is happening in Panama, which according to Rosales is suffering a 36% acceleration.
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The specialist considered that this rise in the number of cases in El Salvador “is related to the behavior of the population during this Christmas period, the protective measures have been relaxed too much, there is too much crowds”.
Solano Leiva agreed that “in El Salvador we are dealing with a recovery in cases, after the highest number of cases we had in July, the peak of that first COVID outbreak in our country. For three or four weeks, we have seen these averages rise according to official data, today more than 250 daily cases ”.
While he insisted that the government’s figures are not entirely reliable, he stressed that even those figures reflect an increase. Solano Leiva warned that “we see in the public system that a percentage of IC beds and hospital admissions are starting to be noticed as a result of COVID-19,” and regretted that everything indicates that “we will have a beginning of 2021 with a higher number of cases, with the risk of the health system collapsing again, as in the fateful months of June and July ”.
The country’s hospital capacity is already reaching the maximum of its capacity to care for COVID-19 patients, Solano Leiva explained, explaining that at the El Salvador hospital in Cifco, “ until a few days ago they told us that the capacity to use the IC beds was 92% occupied. In 80% the NICU of the intermediary, and from 25 to 30% the beds of generals ”.
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As for the situation in other health centers, Solano Leiva assured that “the surgical doctor (from the ISSS) has about 50 to 60 beds for COVID patients, and in recent weeks one of the two services for this has been nearly full. And the General Hospital ICU treats COVID patients, just like the Amatepec of Social Security, and with each passing day, the capacity increases ”with patients confirmed with the novel Coronavirus.
Several private hospitals have not received COVID-19 patients for months, and according to Solano Leiva, “ the only hospital to be received in this sector is the Escalón Medical Center, which has a capacity of 15 beds, which were full until last night (Tuesday). , something we hadn’t seen in recent weeks.
Both doctors regretted that the management of the pandemic has been politicized in the country rather than giving it a technical and scientific approach. In this sense, Solano Leiva criticized that “it is a lie that the Ministry of Health does not have the necessary tools to take the relevant measures to help reduce the spread of COVID-19 in our country,” noting that the Health Code this allows to impose economic or civil sanctions.
According to the also representative of the Medical Association of El Salvador, “The Health Code in Article 131 determines what to do if there are epidemics in the country, what measures can be taken. Unfortunately, we have heard the Minister (of Health, Francisco Alabí) and many officials say that their hands are tied, that they cannot impose any kind of economic or civil sanctions, or denounce those people who engage in activities where major events take place can argue. , where prevention measures are not complied with ”.
To ensure that the projection of the double number of cases does not take place in April, both doctors asked the population not to be wary of the necessary prevention measures, and asked the government for a better communication campaign about the risks of COVID -19 and avoid contamination forms.