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Chris O’Meara / Associated Press
The NBA trade winds are on the rise, and they are about to get the rumor mill out of control.
It’s a bit of a late start to the process given the delayed opening of the 2020-21 campaign, but it could be a sprint from here to the March 25 trading deadline.
Several major trading dominos have already fallen – most recently, Derrick Rose reuniting with Tom Thibodeau at the New York Knicks (much to the delight of Jimmy Butler) – but that hasn’t slowed down the chatter a bit.
Since trade talks are not always reliable, we break down the last whisper here to buy the substantial reports and sell the smokescreens.
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Frank Franklin II / Associated Press
The Toronto Raptors have relatively recovered from their disastrous 2-8 start, but still seem to be a level (or more) behind the elite of the East. They’re a good-not-great 10th in net rankings and have thrown all kinds of warning flags with a 3-9 record against opponents with a .500-plus record.
If this is the best it can be, Toronto may need to think more about tomorrow than today. Some within the organization are reportedly poised to make that change by swapping out the six-time All-Star – and 34-year-old unlimited free agent-to-be – Kyle Lowry.
“There is a section of Raptors staff, sources in the league said, who believe the franchise needs to say goodbye to its beloved All-Star and start in earnest with Toronto’s next chapter,” reported B / R’s Jake Fischer.
Trading Lowry would stick on multiple fronts and, assuming the returns package would be forward-looking, lower the ceiling of the current campaign with several stories. But if the Raptors aren’t competing for a title after all, what’s the real damage? Sometimes sound business thinking requires the embrace of a step backwards to eventually pave a path for greater progress.
Toronto could brighten its future in several ways. Most obvious would be the inbound collection of assets, which would be important. Even as a 34-year-old tenant, Lowry’s impact as a scorer, shooter, defender and conductor on court could convince a contender like the Los Angeles Clippers or a warring hopeful like the Miami Heat to open the war chest.
But there’s also the added focus on the newcomers to the Raptors that Lowry’s absence would create. He tops the team in assists and third in points and minutes. Charging players like Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Terence Davis and Malachi Flynn to replace that production could be a way to speed up their ascension.
Toronto clearly shouldn’t be giving away Lowry. But if someone makes an offer consistent with their status and stats, it may be time to end this Raptors era for good.
Verdict: Buy, even though the idea hits us – and certainly all of the North – right in the #Feelz.
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Michael Dwyer / Associated Press
When the Boston Celtics felt that a breakup with Kyrie Irving in 2019 was inevitable, they soon turned to Kemba Walker as a suitable replacement. But they never addressed the void that arose when Al Horford left that same summer, nor the void that arose when Gordon Hayward left Beantown off-season.
They haven’t been completely ousted from the heavyweights due to the rise of superstars from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but they seem to be a few players short of where they were (and, more importantly, where they’re trying to go). The Celtics are unlikely to encounter any new Horford or Hayward between now and the deadline, but they are reportedly targeting those positions in the trading market.
“League sources have long said Boston is looking for upgrades to bolster its position as a wing and big man,” said Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer.
The Celtics are sitting on a $ 28.5 million traded player exception (the largest in NBA history), all of their future first-round picks and prospects like Romeo Langford and Aaron Nesmith. There might not be enough ammo for a superstar swap, but if Tatum and Brown are scratching that itch anyway, Boston should be on the hunt for size, shooting, and consistency in its support staff.
Boston has played in three of the past four Eastern Conference finals, but it hasn’t made it to the Association Championship round since Doc Rivers led the show in 2010. Tatum and Brown can keep the Celtics at very close range, but they need more. help to cross that threshold.
Verdict: buy. Celtics president Danny Ainge is nicknamed “Trader Dan” for a reason, and he has to fill in gaps with this selection.
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Tony Dejak / Associated Press
The Cleveland Cavaliers haven’t been wiped out of the playoff race, but the past two weeks have brought nearly every positive vibe from Northeast Ohio.
Since eliminating the Brooklyn Nets in consecutive games on January 20 and 22, the Cavaliers have won only two of their last 10 games. And those wins came against the Detroit Pistons and Minnesota Timberwolves, the only clubs in the league with win rates of .250 or worse. Cleveland’s bottom line on this trajectory is an NBA worst-minus-13.0 points per 100 possessions.
Trade vultures start circling this squad in hopes of a fire sale starting. When that happens, the Cavaliers can provide for the frontcourt of different clubs.
Andre Drummond has suitors, including the Raptors, per O’Connor. Larry Nance Jr. could earn “significant returns” if Cleveland were to trade it. Teams also keep an eye on JaVale McGee. The only big man who doesn’t seem to have a market is the most decorated of the bunch: Kevin Love, a five-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA squad.
“Kevin Love will have to prove he can stay healthy before anyone swaps for him and the $ 60.2 million on his contract after this season,” O’Connor said.
All of this complies with the smell test.
Drummond has never played better, and even with his attacking limitations, his rebounding and paint protection would bolster a contender’s frontcourt. Nance offers a wealth of two-way versatility, so if the Cavs let him go, they should ask for the moon and not settle for much less. McGee has size, height, and championship experience. Love’s contract is extremely expensive if he hasn’t seen anything since the end of December.
Cleveland could be one of the biggest sellers of the trading season, but Love seems likely to linger in the off-season due to a lack of interest.
Verdict: buy completely on both fronts.
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Sue Ogrocki / Associated Press
The Chicago Bulls thought they were a few role-playing pieces away from the 2019 playoffs, so they added Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky as their veteran accelerators.
Not good so far.
The Bulls didn’t make it to the bubble cutoff last season, and if this campaign ended today, they would be out of the play-in tournament. Their frontcourt has been riven with injuries and their attack struggles to find stability outside of Zach LaVine.
Young was a bright spot, setting personal bests in field goal percentage (59.0) and assists per game (4.4) along with the second highest player efficiency rating of his career (18.6). But the Bulls have to decide between now and March 25 how much that matters when the 32-year-old’s timeline is so far from that of the young core.
Teams think – or at least hope – Chicago might decide that selling is the best way forward.
Buyers are ‘increasingly looking’ to the Windy City for upgrades with Young ‘drawing the most interest,’ said Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. He also noted that there is “no indication” that Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas has any interest in the sale.
The interest in Young is not the least surprising. He is a tough veteran with the skills, intelligence, experience and versatility to cheer up any frontcourt and instantly adapt to a new environment. It’s hard to imagine there are many (if any) forward rotations that wouldn’t look any better on him in the mix.
Some might use that as a reason Chicago would keep him, but what exactly are the Bulls going to fight for in the short term? If they play the long game – as their record suggests they should – they would get the most mileage by moving Young for assets and freeing up as many attack minutes as possible for newcomers Patrick Williams, Daniel Gafford and (when healthy) Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr.
Verdict: Buy interest in Thaddeus Young, sell Chicago because he won’t let him go.
All statistics are current for games played on Feb. 8 and used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference, unless otherwise noted.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @BuienRadarNL.