Bucs-Packers, Bills-Chiefs picks, schedule, odds, injuries, predictions and more for AFC and NFC championships

The conference championships of the NFL playoffs have arrived, and both begin on Sunday. The fifth-seeded Tampa Bay Buccaneers will compete against the best Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, and then No. 2-seeded Buffalo Bills to play the No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. The winners will advance to Super Bowl LV on February 7.

We take a look at an example of both title games. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to the games, a bold prediction for every matchup and final score.

In addition, ESPN Stats & Information provides a statistic that you should know for every game and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes within the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Chalk’s Dave Bearman hands out nuggets of nuggets, and NFL analyst Matt Bowen points to an important matchup to watch. It’s all there to prepare you for an exciting weekend of NFL playoff football.

Jump to a matchup:
TB-GB | BUF-KC

3:05 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup Rating: 96.3 | Spread: GB -3 (51.5)

What should you pay attention to: If there’s anything to complain about in Matt LaFleur’s highly successful two-year run as the Packers’ coach, it might be a move slow to adjust. When these teams met in week 6, the Bucs played zone coverage on 61% of quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ dropbacks, and Rodgers had his only multi-interception game this season. And in general, the more teams have played zone against Rodgers in the past two years, the better they have fared. LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett know what’s to come in terms of coverage and how they intend their level of success to dictate against a tough Tampa Bay defense. – Rob Demovsky

Bold Prediction: Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady’s game-winning touchdown pass will not be thrown to wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown or Scotty Miller, tight ends Rob Gronkowski or Cameron Brate, or running backs Ronald Jones II or Leonard Fournette. No, it goes to wide receiver Tyler Johnson. The fifth-round rookie from Minnesota had just one catch against the Saints last week, but that 15-yard spinning grab on the perimeter was masterful. The only reason we’re not talking about Johnson anymore is because of the depth map he’s buried on. He has a knack for making tough catches in high pressure situations, and he will do that again on Sunday. – Jenna Laine

Stat to know: The two biggest factors in Brady’s performance all season were pressure and vertical play. In 13 wins over the course of the season (including playoffs), he averaged 1.1 sacks per game, saw pressure on 14% of his dropbacks and posted an 82 QBR. But in five losses, his bag count rose to 2.2 per game, his pressure percentage climbed to 27%, and his QBR nearly split in two (44). And as for the deep ball, consider this: On passes thrown more than 20 yards to the field over that 18-game period, he’s hit 45% for 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions on wins, but only 21% for a single score. and five choices in the losses.

Bowen’s Matchup Key: How does Tampa Bay Packers keep wide receiver Davante Adams under control? It starts with the scrimmage in Cover 1, with Buccaneer’s cornerback Carlton Davis trying to use his height and physical traits to disrupt Adams’s release. If he can’t, Davis ‘lack of recovery speed versus Adams’ sudden ability to divorce will pose problems for the Bucs. read more.

What’s at stake: A win for the Buccaneers would be the first non-division champion to reach the Super Bowl since the 2010 Packers. It would also bring Brady’s 10th Super Bowl appearance across three decades. However, Rodgers has played in only one Super Bowl. And after losing his last three NFC Championship Game appearances and 1-3 over his career in this game, Rodgers is trying to avoid becoming just the third QB with less than two wins and more than three losses in conference match titles ( Ken Stabler and Donovan McNabb are both 1-4).

Injuries: Buccaneers | Packers

Bet: Brady is 9-4 upright and 6-7 against the spread in conference championship games. The under is 8-5 in those matchups, including 7-2 in his past nine. read more.

Laine’s choice: Buccaneers 26, Packers 24
Demovsky’s pick: Packers 31, Buccaneers 17
FPI prediction: GB, 53.2% (average 1.1 points)

Home audience: Last week’s playoff game at Lambeau Field had a turnout of 8,456. With possibly more guests from players and coaches of both teams in the stadium this week, the expected attendance in the baseball field is 8,500-9,000. That is about 10-11% of the 81,441 capacity at Lambeau.

Matchup should read: Finally, Rodgers vs. Brady: In the playoff matchup 13 years in the making … ‘Too much information’ never enough for Packers’ dominant offense … WR Brown (knee) to be a game-time call for Bucs .. Award-winning achievement: Packers’ receivers prove worthy once and for all … Bucs beat Rodgers before, but does the formula change? … Rodgers does not feel extra pressure, says his future is ‘beautiful mystery’

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6:40 pm ET | CBS
Matchup Rating: 92.3 | Spread: KC -3 (53.5)

What to pay attention to: Will Chiefs play quarterback Patrick Mahomes (concussion protocol)? That’s the question on everyone’s mind, and Chad Henne’s backup will begin when Mahomes is absent. But with or without Mahomes, the Chiefs’ run game is something to keep an eye on. Kansas City was rushing to a season-high 245 yards against Buffalo in Week 6 when the Bills played their safety on many snaps deep and were determined not to let Tyreek Hill and other receivers hit deep. They will certainly change strategies this time, but at what cost? The Chiefs only got one pass of more than 22 yards to the Bills last time. Can the Bills effectively slow down the Chiefs’ ongoing play while still limiting the number of big pass plays? – Adam Teicher

Bold Prediction: Bill’s quarterback Josh Allen will surpass 350 passing yards and wide receiver Stefon Diggs will run in his third straight game with 100 receiving yards and a touchdown. And a little bolder, the Bills will not only win the Chiefs in their own backyard, but also vastly outpace Buffalo’s first ticket to the Super Bowl since the 1993 season. – Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: The Bills have fallen back to pass 73% of the time this post-season, and only one team has ever made it to a conference title game that passed more often – the 2015 Patriots (83%), who lost in the AFC Championship Game that season . Buffalo won last week by just 32 rushing yards – the fourth lowest ever in a playoff win, according to the Elias Sports Bureau – and Allen is currently leading the team on the ground with 57 yards over two postseason games. The Bills averaged 64.0 rushing yards per game this season, less than all but one team to ever make it to the Super Bowl; the 1999 rams averaged 41.0.

Bowen’s Matchup Key: Watch out for the Chiefs’ defenses to show pressure and spin to play Cover 2 “thief”, with security Tyrann Mathieu as defender in the center hole. This allows the Chiefs to run Allen post-snap with late moves, but it also allows Kansas City to play zone coverage with Mathieu lying in the weeds as a midfield present, in position to attack a burglar. steal . read more.

What’s at stake: The Chiefs aim to become the first repeat Super Bowl champion since the 2003-04 Patriots, the longest stretch in NFL history without a repeat champion. They are the 12th defensive Super Bowl champions to host a conference championship, and the previous 11 teams went 10-1 (only loss was by the 1990 49ers). The Bills, meanwhile, are trying to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since losing four consecutive times in the 1990-93 seasons. They haven’t won a single title since the 1965 AFL Championship, and their 0-4 record in Super Bowls equals the Vikings for most appearances without a win.

Injuries: Accounts | Chiefs | Last on Mahomes

Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 1-8 against the spread in their past nine games (8-1 outright) and they are 0-5 against the spread in their past five at home. read more.

Louis-Jacques’ choice: Accounts 31, Chiefs 28
Teicher’s choice: Chiefs 27, Bills 22
FPI prediction: CC, 58.3% (average 2.7 points)

Home audience: The Chiefs have kept their attendance at or below 22% of the Arrowhead Stadium this season (76,416 total capacity), with their biggest crowd last week against the Browns (16,730). Expect a similar number at the AFC Championship Game.

Matchup should read: Bills may justify trading Mahomes pick by making it to Super Bowl … For Chiefs ‘Reid’ every down is a throw ‘even on the fourth and the 1 … How serious is Davis’ ankle injury? Biggest questions on the way to AFC title game … Mahomes practices in limited capacity, stays in concussion protocol