The COVID-19 strain first discovered in the UK is doubling every 10 days in the US, posing a potential risk of more cases and deaths in the country, according to a study released Sunday.
A group of researchers estimated that the British variety, called B.1.1.7, is spreading at an increased transfer rate of 35 to 45 percent and is expected to become the predominant species in the US by March. The study, released on server medRxiv, has not yet been peer reviewed or published in a medical journal.
Our study shows that the US is on a similar trajectory to other countries where B.1.1.7 quickly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality The study reads. .
Scientists have determined, based on half a million COVID-19 tests and 212 genomes, that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) predict that the British strain would become the most common coronavirus variant in the US in March.
Kristian Andersen, a study co-author and virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California, told The New York Times that “nothing in this paper is surprising, but people should see it.”
Researchers estimate that the British strain, first announced by the UK government on December 20, emerged in the US as early as November. The first case was confirmed in the U.S. in Colorado on Dec. 29 and has since spread to at least 33 states, according to the CDC.
The species first found in the UK was brought to the US at least eight times on separate occasions, according to the study, possibly due to increased travel on Thanksgiving and Christmas between the two countries.
Using their genome sequencing with the test results of laboratory testing company Helix, the analysts determined their prediction for how quickly the coronavirus variant has spread in the US. Helix was contracted by the CDC to inspect samples for the British strain.
The scientists expect the strain to make up a higher percentage of COVID-19 cases in certain states such as Florida, where an estimated 4.5 percent of cases come from the variant.
As a whole, the UK variant is estimated to make up 2 percent of all cases in the US, meaning 1,000 more people could contract the species every day, the Times noted.
The CDC has reported 611 B.1.1.7 cases in the US, but the number is expected to be much higher due to the complicated method of confirming a case was from a British strain.
In total, the US has counted nearly 27 million cases and more than 463,000 deaths from COVID-19, with January registering the most deaths and the highest average number of hospital admissions for the coronavirus of every month of the pandemic.