LONDON (Reuters) – British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned on Tuesday that the rapid decline in COVID-19 deaths was largely due to a three-month blockage, not the vaccination program, and that cases would increase again as restrictions diminish .
The UK launched its vaccination campaign in December and has already offered a first chance to all over 50s, clinically vulnerable people and health professionals. The country only lags behind Israel in the proportion of the population that has received at least one dose.
However, that rollout was followed a month later by a third lockdown in early January to address growing infections caused by the “Kent” variety of the virus. Since February, daily infection rates, hospitalizations and deaths have all dropped sharply.
“Most of the work in reducing the disease has been done through the lockdown,” Johnson said Tuesday, adding that there was no reason to change the roadmap for reopening the economy.
“If we unlock, the result will inevitably be that we will see more infections and unfortunately we will see more hospitalizations and deaths.”
As conditions improve, England reopened all shops, hairdressers, gyms and pub gardens on Monday and Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales will reopen various elements of their societies in the coming weeks.
Vaccine rollout also got a boost on Tuesday when Moderna became the third vaccine to be offered in England after AstraZeneca and one from Pfizer-BioNTech.
That will help keep Britain on track to achieve its goal of offering all adults a vaccine by the end of July.
Already offered in the United States and Europe, Moderna uses the same mRNA technology as Pfizer’s shots, but can be stored at normal refrigerator temperatures unlike its rival US vaccine, which must be stored and shipped at ultra-low temperatures.
On Tuesday, NHS England said people 45 or older can now make appointments to get a COVID-19 vaccine. For those categories that already offered a vaccine, it said 95% of those eligible had taken up the offer.
However, in another warning to the optimism, the government announced an extension of so-called surge tests in the South London boroughs of Lambeth and Wandsworth to detect cases of the variant first found in South Africa.
There are 74 confirmed and probable cases of the coronavirus variant, known as B.1.351, in the boroughs, and there is concern that vaccines may be less effective against it.
“The most important thing will be to look: If the South African variant has really taken off, and we probably know in about two to three weeks, then maybe we should pause the reopening a bit,” James Naismith, professor of structural biology at Oxford University and director of Rosalind Franklin Institute, told BBC Radio.
With more than 127,000 fatalities, the UK has the fifth highest death toll in the world since COVID-19.