Disney’s “Black Widow” and Universal’s “F9” are poised to kick off the summer movie season. Still, both blockbusters are unlikely to actually arrive on track.
While neither film has been delayed, industry experts and insiders speculate that the delays in Hollywood’s next release date will begin to affect mid-2021.
At the moment, it is almost expected that films released in the first half of the year will be moved again. With coronavirus cases rampant and vaccine roll-out slower than many would have hoped, studios and by extension cinema operators are essentially in the same situation as 10 months ago: audiences don’t go to the movies.
Even with President Joe Biden’s recent announcement that the US will be able to vaccinate 300 million people by July, it is too early to say how soon Americans will be able to resume their daily activities.
In the meantime, however, ticket sales aren’t doing much to encourage studios. With 60% of US theaters closed, the top 10 movies combined have grossed between $ 7 million and $ 12 million every weekend, according to Box Office Mojo. In summary, talks about reopening theaters in major markets like New York and Los Angeles have seemingly stalled, and Hollywood players are pretty clear that they have no intention of opening a bustling tent pole without seaside theaters welcoming guests.
After MGM announced in January that “No Time to Die,” Daniel Craig’s final appearance as James Bond, will no longer hit theaters in April (it’s now scheduled for October 8), it sparked a small wave. Universal pushed the Bob Odenkirk thriller “Nobody” to April, Paramount bounced “A Quiet Place Part II” to September, and Sony pushed “Ghostbusters: Afterlife and” Cinderella “to November and July respectively. (Meanwhile, Warner Bros., seemingly operating in another universe due to its hybrid HBO Max deal, “Godzilla vs. Kong” up two months from May to March).
But the two biggest films set to release in the coming months, Scarlett Johansson-led Marvel adventure ‘Black Widow’ (set May 7) and ‘Fast and Furious’ sequel ‘F9’ (set May 28), have not staggered. . And it’s not because their respective studios are optimistic that they can open these in theaters as planned. The decision is not as these titles should be moved, more likely it is a matter of judging where to move them.
It is a particularly important decision, however, as the delay of “Black Widow” and “F9” signals to the rest of the film industry that another summer season will be missing from theaters.
It is regularly rumored that “Black Widow” would keep its May release date and follow a route similar to “Raya and the Last Dragon,” meaning it would premiere simultaneously in theaters and on Disney Plus for a premium price. During Disney’s quarterly earnings call on Thursday, Disney CEO Bob Chapek debunked that theory, emphasizing that the studio “still plans to [‘Black Widow’] to be a theatrical release. “
According to insiders, this is partly because Marvel Studios chief Kevin Feige, the lead architect behind the carefully crafted Marvel Cinematic Universe, was against a hybrid rollout. Having produced many of the studio’s top-grossing movies, including “Avengers: Infinity War” and “Avengers: Endgame,” Feige’s opinion certainly weighs heavily at Disney. But that doesn’t mean the forces out there can’t ultimately convince Feige to change his mind – or overrule him completely.
Sources suggest Disney will have three to four weeks to make a decision on “Black Widow” and that Universal will have a little more time for “F9,” as it won’t debut until three weeks after the Marvel movie. Black Widow, in particular, represents its own set of complications due to the interconnected nature of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which now includes feature films intended for theatrical distribution as well as limited and ongoing TV series made for Disney Plus. Bumping into “Black Widow” means that “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” (July 9) and “Eternals” (November 5) would almost certainly be shuffled as well. It could also confuse Marvel’s carefully planned rollout of its Disney Plus shows – after “The Falcon and the Winter Solider” in March, at least four more titles will premiere on the streamer this year.
Meanwhile, Universal plans to keep a traditional theatrical release for “F9” as “Fast & Furious” is one of the studio’s most lucrative properties. Prior to the pandemic, the impending entry would have easily generated more than $ 1 billion worldwide. Under the current circumstances, getting tickets near that number would be a feat as unrealistic as the gravity-defying stunts performed in a “Fast” movie. Although Universal signed an agreement with major theater chains, including AMC and Cinemark, last year to bring its films on demand earlier than usual, even the most optimistic outcome would result in a proposal to lose money given the diminished theatrical market. Too few countries have reopened cinemas and too few people go to the areas where the cinema has returned.
For now, Universal is waiting to see how the box office recovers in China, where “Fast” movies are hugely popular. Depending on Asian countries, “F9” could open later in the summer, possibly in July or August, or later in 2021. There is even a world where it is delayed for another year.
“Black Widow” and “F9” are no small propositions; They each run nine-figure marketing campaigns on top of production budgets of more than $ 200 million. Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet,” which attempted to revive the cinema last September and grossed $ 363 million worldwide, has achieved the strongest result to date for a coronavirus-era release. Months later, ‘Wonder Woman 1984’ tipped in a paltry $ 154 million worldwide. If “Black Widow” and “F9” repeated those results, they would lose millions and millions.
On a positive note: “Black Widow” and “F9” both benefit from brand awareness, which means that the general public is already familiar with these franchises. Their respective studios don’t have to re-introduce the characters to the audience as they should with an original property. And, unlike James Bond, which has lucrative partnerships with Heineken and Audi, among others, neither ‘Fast’ nor ‘Black Widow’ have significant ties to consumer products, making it easier and cheaper for them to pick up and move to a new one. date.
The eventual withdrawal of “Black Widow” and “F9” could have serious consequences for the movie world. Several titles, including Ryan Reynolds’ sci-fi adventure ‘Free Guy’ (May 21), Paramount’s’ Infinite ‘with Mark Wahlberg (May 28), Sony’s’ Venom’ sequel (June 25) and ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ (July 2), stay on the calendar. But plans can be changed as “Black Widow” and “F9” in the summer waving the white flag.
What’s tricky is that the second half of the year has become so stacked that there is hardly any room to insert new titles without pushing others back. From the fall, blockbusters will be on the program almost every week: “A Quiet Place” (September 17), “Many Saints of Newark” (September 24), “Dune” (October 1), “Halloween Kills” (15 October), “Eternals” (November 5), “Ghostbusters: Afterlife” (November 11), “Mission: Impossible” (November 19), “West Side Story” (December 10) and “The Matrix 4” (December 22) .
On closer inspection, it appears that no one has told the holidays that a pandemic is still raging.