At best, Republicans could use their votes to avert the approaching cliff as leverage to achieve GOP policy victories in negotiations later this year. At worst, they could pass the cuts as punishment to Democrats for using the reconciliation tool to debunk the GOP’s input, as the majority party pushes to advance Biden’s package by just 51 votes in the Senate.
“I don’t know whether to worry or not,” said House Budget Chair John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) In an interview. “I’ve been told not to worry.”
The solution could be as simple as inserting language into mandatory legislation before the cuts start in mid-January, as Congress has previously done with little fanfare. However, unlike a bill for reconciliation, that solution cannot pass the Senate with a simple majority and 10 Senate Republicans must opt out.
“Everyone doesn’t seem to worry about it,” Yarmuth said. “I don’t know, I’ve been told it’s more or less perfunctory that we’ll get it done.”
Senate leader Mitch McConnell, minority leader, did not respond to two requests for comment about whether Republicans would help forgo the mandatory spending stemming from Biden’s pandemic relief plan.
In “ordinary” times “it would be almost certain that Republicans would agree,” said David Wessel, a director at the centrist Brookings Institution.
“But these are no ordinary times, and you can’t be sure that the Republicans would agree,” said Wessel, head of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at Brookings. “I think there is a small but significant risk that the Republicans would use this as leverage to get something from the Democrats.”
Both sides have voted repeatedly to abandon the rule and avoid the cuts with other major reconciliation packages. Democrats joined Republicans to avoid $ 150 billion in cuts allegedly prompted by the 2017 tax reform, including a share of $ 25 billion from Medicare. The Congressional Budget Office at the time determined that certain programs, such as the Public Health and Prevention Fund under Obamacare, would have been virtually wiped out.
Lawmakers similarly stopped cutting when it came to Obama-era stimulus legislation and multiple tax-cut packages under George W. Bush.
However, some on Capitol Hill say times have changed.
“While Democrats came in to protect Medicare and other programs from significant cuts after Republicans used reconciliation to push tax cuts for the wealthy, we have to be realistic that Republicans are less likely to do the same for us,” said a Democratic associate of the House, who asked to remain in the background to discuss the concerns frankly.
“Are we really going to find 10 Senate Republicans to avoid these cuts after they find Jesus again on the national debt? Let’s face it, ‘the assistant said in a statement. “Chances are they will allow these cuts and paint the Democrats as the ones responsible, as we have total power in Congress and the White House.”
Two other senior Democratic aides rejected the threat entirely, saying concerns about the impending cuts have not been raised as both the House and Senate are compiling the details of Biden’s bill.
“This is not a problem,” said a senior Democratic assistant. “This is not something we worry about because we know that every time this problem has happened in the past it has always been fixed.”
Provisions to avert the austerity could be added to mandatory legislation, such as annual spending bills, to ensure that it would be politically expensive for Republicans to vote against the cutbacks.
“So they are willing to shut down the government in exchange for austerity?” said the assistant. “No one is going to allow Medicare or farm labor programs to be cut because of the reconciliation bill … I can guarantee that.”
Democrats are also considering using reconciliation twice during this session – once to approve Biden’s pandemic relief plan, and again to push through a massive climate and infrastructure package. That legislation would also contribute to the cuts Congress must avoid.
Matthew Dickerson, a director at the Conservative Heritage Foundation, said Republicans could offer their support to avoid the reductions in exchange for more measured steps to reduce the country’s debt and deficit, such as an agreement to cut spending on compulsory curb programs.
“It’s a useful leverage point for Republicans,” said Dickerson, who heads the Grover M. Hermann Center for the federal budget. “We can’t keep spending at the rate we’re spending.”