By Trevor Hunnicutt
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – After a month at work, President Joe Biden is on the verge of securing a larger economic bailout than during the 2009 financial crisis. He has wiped out his predecessor Donald Trump’s policies from climate change to travel bans , while the US daily COVID-19 vaccination rate is up 55%.
That may have been the easy part.
The White House’s broad strategy – avoid political battles that cannot be won, focus on policies with mass voter appeal, and above all, ignore Republican attacks – will become increasingly difficult in the coming months, Democrats and Republicans say, even as millions increase. vaccinated and the economy is recovering.
“They have some problems around the corner,” said Jim Manley, once a top employee of former Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid.
Biden has many of the changes that he can clearly make through executive acting. Future landmines include pushing laws that divide the Democratic Party, such as college debt relief, tax increases, and curbing the energy sector.
Then there are the stubborn policy battles that have shaped American politics for a generation, including who can become a citizen, how easy it should be to vote, whether the government should pay for health care and who should carry a gun.
Meanwhile, many tricky issues, from trade tariffs to China policy to technical oversight, are still under investigation in the White House.
DEMOCRATS UNITED?
Democrats are working to pass their economic stimulus package with or without Republican backing before a critical mid-March deadline, when the comprehensive unemployment insurance policy expires.
The bill only needs a majority vote as it will be passed as part of a process called reconciliation, but that requires every Democrat to rally behind the White House. Doubts are growing that the bill will include a provision that increases the federal minimum wage to $ 15, which would seriously disappoint Liberal Democrats.
“I’m shocked at how disciplined the Left has been; I’m not sure how long that will last,” said Manley. “I can see some cracks appear.”
Those cracks were seen when some Democrats, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, criticized Biden after telling a CNN town hall Feb. 16 that he disagrees with members of his party. who want to forgive $ 50,000. in student debt.
A comprehensive White House-backed immigration bill unveiled on Feb. 18 is not expected to be passed by the Senate; The second-placed Democrat, Dick Durbin, is among those suggesting a less ambitious effort targeting immigrants brought to the United States as children.
Republicans are reshuffling after the Trump years, said Paul Shumaker, a Republican strategist behind the hard-won re-election of Senator Thom Tillis in North Carolina.
Biden could unite them by doing too much on tax and spending, he noted, while too little on these issues will disappoint some of his democratic base.
“He’s enjoying a honeymoon, but everyone knows that honeymoon is coming to an end,” Shumaker said.
ELUSIVE REPUBLICAN SUPPORT
White House aides say the policy agenda they want to push in the coming months has a two-pronged appeal to voters, and they believe Republicans in Congress could eventually be forced by their voters to back it.
“Will he focus on winning over every last Republican? No, of course not,” said Kate Bedingfield, White House communications director, a confidant of Biden.
“But is he going to reach out and speak to people on both sides of the aisle – is he going to work to propose plans that meet the needs of people on both sides – yes, he absolutely is.”
Biden’s early poll numbers suggest that will be challenging. About 56% of Americans approve of his running as president, according to a Reuters / Ipsos poll conducted in mid-February, but only 20% of Republicans.
The White House’s dual hope lies in an infrastructure plan, still in its early stages of development, expected to exceed the scale, scope, and price tag of the roughly $ 1.9 trillion stimulus bill.
The measure will almost certainly both increase the deficit and require some tax hikes, measures that are expected to lead to opposition. It will likely be peppered with climate change measures, and could also include Biden’s proposed college grants, according to several people briefed on early talks.
Putting the pieces together will be difficult without a full senior staff, including Biden’s choice of budget director, Neera Tanden, whose affirmation has met democratic opposition from Senator Joe Manchin, who also opposed the inclusion of the minimum wage in the stimulus law.
Nevertheless, the left’s expectations for Biden remain high.
“The government was brave and strong,” said Luis Hernandez, an activist for the prevention of youth violence who met with senior officials last week. “Much more needs to be done.”
(Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt; edited by Heather Timmons and Daniel Wallis)