US President Joe Biden wants to end the war in Yemen, but the conflict is unlikely to be reversed any time soon, said Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the ragged Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“In fact, I think this is likely to make the conflict worse,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.
Biden announced last month that the US will withdraw its support for the offensive against Houthi forces in Yemen.
Previous governments led by Donald Trump and Barack Obama supported the Saudi-led alliance in its intervention in the civil war in Yemen.
Yemen’s civil war started in 2014 when Houthi rebels took over the capital, Sanaa, from the internationally recognized Yemeni government.
A year later, Saudi Arabia led a coalition of Sunni Arab states in support of the Yemeni government to expel the Houthis, a militia backed by Iran with a Shia majority.
We just hope that an Iranian-backed militia comes to the table and acts reasonably. Unfortunately, I think this is wishful thinking.
Jonathan Schanzer
Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
According to the United Nations, the war has already caused an estimated 233,000 deaths – including more than 100,000 deaths from indirect causes such as lack of food, health services and infrastructure.
Schanzer said Biden’s move will not help end the war in Yemen because the US has no concessions to the Houthis, who are now less inclined than before to compromise.
“What the Biden administration has done is it has taken the military option off the table for the United States, even through a proxy through the Saudis,” he said.
Diplomacy the only option
The US has also removed the Houthis from designation as a foreign terrorist organization and removed them from the Specially Designated Global Terrorist list.
“What’s left now is diplomacy,” said Schanzer.
“The reality we’re facing now is that we’ve really taken all of our other power off the table, and we’re just hoping that an Iranian-backed militia will come to the table and act reasonably,” he said. . “Unfortunately, I think this is wishful thinking.”
He noted that the Houthis have stepped up their strikes, even though US special envoy to Yemen, Timothy Lenderking, has begged them to negotiate.
Clouds of smoke over the residential area following airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition on March 7, 2021 in Sana’a, Yemen, targeting military positions held by Houthi.
Mohammed Hamoud | Getty Images News | Getty images
Schanzer said Saudi Arabia’s ongoing military operations could be “one of the few levers” the US can use in discussions with the Houthis.
Yet he recognized that there is an aversion to involvement in the conflict. “It looks like the Biden government itself is in a bit of a knot,” he said.
It is unlikely that progress will be made for the time being in ending the war in Yemen, he said, noting the aggression of the Houthis.
“With the drone swarm attacks and the ballistic missile attacks and other acts of violence they have committed in the Saudi state, it is very, very difficult to imagine the Saudis wanting to reverse their reprisals,” he said. .
– CNBC’s Amanda Macias contributed to this report.