Top members of Biden’s COVID response team are internally warning that the US may not achieve immunity to the herd until after Thanksgiving or even the onset of winter – months later than originally calculated, two senior officials said.
In an interview with CBS News this week, President Joe Biden pointed out some of these concerns, saying it would be “very difficult” to achieve herd immunity – a population-wide resistance to the virus – “much before the end. of the summer “at the current daily rate of about 1.3 million vaccine doses. Other top officials working on the federal government’s COVID-19 response say they are concerned about the long-term supply of vaccines and the impact on herd immunity, and have begun to explore ways to expand US manufacturing capacity, possibly through new partnerships with outside pharmaceutical companies.
In addition to delivery problems, top health officials say they are increasingly concerned about the COVID-19 variants in the UK and South Africa, the likelihood that more variants will appear in the coming months, and the possibility that those variants will evade the vaccines. There is some evidence that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines offer protection against the B117 variant in the UK, although a recent study shows that a new mutation could make the vaccines less effective. Data collected from Novavax and Johnson and Johnson clinical trials in South Africa suggests their vaccines are less effective against the variant that is rapidly spreading in the country. And South Africa recently said it was halting the rollout of the AstraZeneca vaccine because evidence from clinical trials suggested the vaccine did not work well against the variant.
Together, the recent data has alarmed health officials in the Biden government, who are now asking questions about what else can be done to not just shorten the herd immunity timeline – not just return Americans to some sort of normalcy , but also to ensure that the country does not experience another increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Officials have been talking in recent days about ways to step up genome sequencing to track variants and how to spread the message that Americans should follow public health guidelines more closely to reduce transmission as B117 variant cases begin to increase.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, who previously calculated that about 75 percent of the US population would need to be vaccinated to achieve immunity to herds, said in an interview that he is still “cautiously optimistic” that the country can achieve that goal at the beginning of this year. the fall.
“I still think that’s possible,” Fauci said. “As I’ve said before, once we start mass vaccination when the general public starts getting it towards the end of spring – April, May, June … and we’re past any hesitation with vaccinations, then we should we should be able to reach 70 or 75 percent. We are moving in the right direction. ”Fauci put forward that prediction by underlining his constant concern about the new COVID-19 variants.
In a press conference Monday, Fauci said modeling indicates the B117 variant “could become dominant in late March.” “That’s the sobering news,” he said. “The two things we can do are, A, make sure we adhere to public health measures … and B, get as many people as possible vaccinated as soon as possible.” Vaccination coverage has started to improve across the country in recent days. And Biden’s administration continues to announce increases in the number of doses received each week.
Still, the director of Centers for Disease Control, Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Monday that variant proliferation “remains a major concern and threat that could reverse the recent positive trends we are seeing”. As of this week, 699 variant cases have been confirmed in 34 states, 690 of which are the B117 variant, the variant first reported in the United Kingdom, Walensky said.
“The good news is that even with B117 as the dominant variant … cases plummeted when people lost contact, when people wore masks … That’s the key. We need to give a viral enemy less chance to speak.“
– former CDC director Tom Frieden
“The virus will keep mutating no matter what we do. The types of mutations we’ll see will change as more people are immunized. And natural immunity will continue to put evolutionary pressure on the virus. So we will see different types of mutations that can help it escape vaccine protection or become more transmissible, ”said Rajeev Venkayya, president of Takeda Pharmaceuticals’ vaccine business, who is not involved in the COVID response. ‘I think the most important thing is that it will influence the supply [and access], currently has more vaccines, showing evidence of efficacy and safety. And there I think the story is very promising. “
As the threats posed by the new variants become more apparent, the message is clear among Biden officials and health experts alike: return to basics. Follow the public health guidelines recommended by the CDC for the past year – masks, social distance, and limited indoor contact.
“The more transmissible these viruses are, the higher the threshold you need for herd immunity. The B117 variant… is very concerning, ”said Tom Frieden, former director of the CDC. “The good news is that even with B117 as the dominant variety in the UK and elsewhere… cases plummeted when people lost contact, when people wore masks, when you have people who didn’t share the indoor air with people who weren’t at home. That is the key. We need to give a viral enemy less chance to speak. “
Still, many cities across the country are moving in the opposite direction and restrictions are starting to relax. For example, in New York and New Jersey, officials have begun to consider an increase in the number of indoor restaurants and other indoor events such as weddings. The Governor of Iowa has just lifted the state’s mask mandate.
Walensky opposed those new guidelines on Monday, telling reporters that she had discouraged any step to loosen masking guidelines. “We still have more than 100,000 cases a day,” she said. “I think we still have to manage this pandemic. We still have this emerging threat of variants. And I would just discourage all those activities. We really need to keep all risk mitigation measures here if we really want to take control of this pandemic. “
Atul Gawande, a former member of President Biden’s COVID-19 advisory board, said in an interview that vaccination isn’t the only way to combat the new variants.
“We need more than the vaccines when it comes to the strains. We have a very high viral circulation. So we continue to generate new species. The fact that we have already seen strains that have reduced effectiveness for the vaccines suggests what we may be dealing with, ”said Gawande. ‘We will have a year in which it will take a long time, not just to reach people. We will have significant segments of the population who have not yet received the vaccine, either because they don’t want it, or because they want to or want to wait. We will have significant circulation. The variants increasingly beat the monoclonal antibodies. “