WASHINGTON – More than a century after the Ottoman Empire murdered an estimated 1.5 million Armenian civilians, President Biden is preparing to declare the atrocities an act of genocide, according to officials familiar with the internal debate. The move would indicate that the US commitment to human rights outweighs the risk of further exhaustion of the US alliance with Turkey.
Mr. Biden is expected to announce the symbolic appointment on Saturday, the 106th anniversary of the beginning of what historians call a years-long and systematic death march that the predecessors of modern Turkey began during World War I. although Ronald Reagan made a cursory reference to the Armenian Genocide in a 1981 Holocaust written statement, and in 2019 both the House and Senate passed measures to make its recognition a formal matter of U.S. foreign policy. to make.
At least 29 other countries have taken similar steps – mainly in Europe and America, but also in Russia and Syria, Turkey’s political opponents.
A US official with knowledge of the government’s talks said that Mr. Biden had decided to issue the statement, and others in the government and at foreign embassies said it was widely expected.
Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, declined to comment on Wednesday, except that the government would have “more to say” on the topic on Saturday.
Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ara Aivazian said in an interview on Wednesday that “recognition by the United States will be a kind of moral beacon for many countries.”
“This is not about Armenia and Turkey,” said Mr Aivazian. “This is about our obligation to recognize and condemn the genocide of the past, present and future.”
The designation and whether Mr. Biden would issue it was seen as an early test of his government’s dealings with the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey.
The two men have had a somewhat troubled relationship in the past, in contrast to the generally warm treatment Mr Erdogan received from President Donald J. Trump, and the genocide statement could lead to a backlash from Turkey for its cooperation in regional military conflicts or diplomatic efforts. For that reason, previous US presidents have been reluctant to issue the statement, and Mr. Biden may change his mind about issuing it.
While Turkey agrees that World War I fighting between the Muslim Ottomans and Christian Armenians resulted in widespread deaths, leaders firmly rejected the assassination campaign that began in 1915 amounted to genocide.
Still, Turkish officials have been bracing for the genocide declaration ever since Mr Biden committed himself to it during his presidential campaign, and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu warned earlier this week that it was damaging the already strained relationship between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s two allies would slow down.
“Statements that are not legally binding will not be of benefit, but they will damage the bands,” Mr Cavusoglu said in an interview with Turkish broadcaster Haberturk. “If the United States is to deteriorate ties, the decision is theirs.”
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The legal definition of genocide was not accepted until 1946, and officials and experts said Mr. Biden’s statement would not contain tangible punishments beyond humiliating Turkey and tarnishing its history with an inevitable comparison to the Holocaust.
“We are firmly against attempts to pretend that this deliberate, organized attempt to destroy the Armenian people was anything other than genocide,” a bipartisan group of 38 senators wrote in a letter to Mr Biden last month, urging him on. to make the statement. . “You have rightly stated that US diplomacy and foreign policy must be rooted in our values, including respect for universal rights. Those values require that we recognize the truth and do what we can to prevent future genocides and other crimes against humanity. “
Mr Biden seems intent on showing that his commitment to human rights – a pillar of his government’s foreign policy – is worth any setback.
The genocide statement indicates that the United States is “ready to accept geostrategic hits for our values,” said James F. Jeffrey, a former ambassador to Turkey who served on senior national security posts for the three presidents who immediately preceded Mr. Biden. .
Mr. Jeffrey, now chairman of the Middle East at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington, said there was little risk of Turkey turning to Russia, Iran or other US adversaries to replace its alliances with the West.
But, he said, Mr Erdogan could easily try to thwart or delay specific policies to aggravate the Biden government, particularly in Syria, where Turkey’s weak ceasefire with Russia has already limited humanitarian access, and in the Black Sea, to which US warships must first cross the Bosphorus and Dardanelles for support missions to Ukraine.
“It may be more difficult to get Erdogan to agree to specific policies,” Jeffrey said.
He also pointed to the prospect that Turkey could force scrupulous assessments to delay non-NATO operations at Incirlik Air Base, a staging post for US forces and equipment in the region. Or, said Mr Jeffrey, Turkey could do something to provoke new sanctions or reintroduce sanctions that have been suspended, such as taking military action against Kurdish fighters allied with US forces against the Islamic State in northeastern Syria. .
Pentagon officials have also pointed to the value of the Turkish forces left behind in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of US and other coalition forces on September 11; Kabul and Ankara have a long-standing relationship that allows some troops to remain in Afghanistan after the NATO countries leave.
Tensions between Turkey and the United States flared up in December, when the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Ankara for the purchase and subsequently testing of a Russian missile defense system that Western officials say could expose NATO’s security networks to Moscow. The sanctions were imposed in the last month of Mr Trump’s presidency, three years after Turkey bought the missile system, and only after Congress demanded them as part of a military spending bill.
Trump had emphatically pledged to assist Armenia during his war against Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region last fall, noting the politically influential Armenian diaspora in the United States. His government took a more balanced approach in its efforts to negotiate a peace agreement with Russia and France, and eventually Armenia surrendered the disputed territory in the conflict with Azerbaijan, which was backed by Turkey.
In the Wednesday interview, Mr Aivazian, the Armenian Foreign Minister, cited Turkey’s military role in the Nagorno-Karabakh war as an example of what he described as “a source of increasing instability” in the region and the Eastern Mediterranean. Sea.
He said the designation genocide would serve as a reminder to the rest of the world if evil values are not countered.
“I believe that including dangerous states in the international order will make our world much safer,” said Mr Aivazian. “And we will see fewer tragedies, fewer human losses, once the United States reaffirms its moral leadership in these turbulent times.”